山金期货黑色板块日报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, the overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. The expectation of the "anti - involution" policy is the current dominant factor. Before the National Day holiday, the downstream restocking demand supports the spot price [2]. - For iron ore, the "anti - involution" policy remains an important disturbing factor for the market. The supply is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has little change for now, but there is a possibility of inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: The output of rebar has decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand has rebounded, and the total inventory has turned to decline. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term long positions can be held with a light position, and investors should leave the market in time when the price rises. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see [2]. - Data: Various price data such as futures and spot prices, basis and spreads, and production, inventory, and demand data are provided, including the fact that the 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.83%, the average daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, etc. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: The profitability of sample steel mills decreased last week due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decline in steel prices. The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 tons week - on - week. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has little change, but there may be an inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, wait patiently for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing the rise [4]. - Data: It includes various price data such as spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads, as well as shipment, inventory, and production data. For example, the Australian iron ore shipment is 1836.9 tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 790.6 tons [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Independent electric - arc - furnace construction steel mills are in a serious loss state, with an average profit of - 132 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of - 35 yuan/ton, and there are still actions to reduce production [7]. - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills increased, with 15 maintenance production lines and 10 restarted production lines [7]. - The total urban inventory this week is 933.75 tons, a decrease of 5.43 tons (- 0.58%) from last week [8]. - The Simandou iron ore project has entered a decisive stage, and the first - batch mining operations of Blocks 1 and 2 have officially started, with a current production capacity of 4000 tons per hour [8].