铜周报20250921：宏观乐观情绪降温，基本面驱动有限-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper 2511 closed at 79,850 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a week-on-week decrease of 1.52%. The center of Shanghai copper moved lower. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the Fed Chairman said this was a risk - management - type interest rate cut, and the call for a 50 - basis - point cut was not high, cooling the loose expectation. China's economic data for August showed slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption. In the second half of the week, the futures price fell, and the spot premium stopped falling and rebounded [4]. - Fundamentally, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remained suspended. The impact of maintenance in September increased, and combined with the tight supply of cold materials, the domestic electrolytic copper output was expected to decrease by more than 4% month - on - month and increase by more than 11% year - on - year. The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week due to pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in the futures price in the second half of the week. The transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities increased week - on - week last week. The total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September decreased by 7.2% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from September 1 - 14 increased by 6% year - on - year. The expected output of photovoltaic modules in September increased slightly month - on - month. The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, the bonded - area inventory increased slightly, the LME copper inventory continued to decline, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [4]. - With the cooling of the loose expectation and limited fundamental drivers, Shanghai copper entered a volatile phase and should be treated within a range [4]. Summary by Directory Price Data - In the second half of the week, the futures price fell, and the copper spot premium stopped falling and rebounded [11] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M discount narrowed week - on - week [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by 0.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week to - 40.8 US dollars/ton, still at a low level [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates in ten ports increased by 31,800 tons week - on - week to 724,500 tons [16] - The refined - scrap price difference weakened week - on - week [18] - Due to increased maintenance in September, the domestic electrolytic copper output was expected to decrease by more than 4% month - on - month and increase by more than 11% year - on - year [20] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [21] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory increased slightly week - on - week [24] - The LME copper inventory continued to decline, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [25] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week due to pre - holiday stockpiling for the National Day and the decline in the futures price in the second half of the week [27] - From September 1 - 14, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 6% year - on - year [31] - The expected output of photovoltaic modules in September increased slightly month - on - month, but there were differences among leading enterprises [32] - The planned production of household air conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [35] Macroeconomic Data - In August in China, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, and the new loans were 590 billion yuan [40] - In the US, the core CPI in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations [42] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and believed that inflation had risen [43]