港口库存高位，需求提振有限

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "Weak Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - Next week is the last procurement week before the National Day, but due to poor profitability in downstream industries, the resistance to high - priced raw materials has increased. The demand side has limited ability to boost the methanol market. Additionally, high inventory in port areas will likely lead to low - level price oscillations, which will negatively impact the inland market. Without sudden macro - positive factors, the methanol market is expected to operate weakly next week. However, the low inventory of inland factories will limit the price decline to some extent [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Domestic supply has contracted this week due to production capacity losses from device overhauls and production cuts exceeding the output supplemented by restored production capacity. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased, mainly dragged down by declines in East and North China, with only a slight increase in the Northwest [2] - Import volume has also contracted, with about 350,000 tons imported this week. The expected arrival next week is 340,000 tons, a 3% decrease from the previous week [2] Demand - Overall domestic demand shows a differentiated pattern. National Day stocking is restricted by reality, with traditional downstream industries having low profitability and limited stocking. Although the MTO load has increased, some industries like formaldehyde are in continuous losses [2] - The olefin sector is performing steadily, with the operating rate slightly rising. Some olefin plants in the Northwest are continuously inquiring about external purchases, but the restart of some plants may reduce external purchases next week [2] - Traditional downstream industries are also differentiated. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether and methane chloride have changed, while the operating rates of formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid have decreased [2] Inventory - The inventory removal pace inland has slowed down, and port inventory has shown narrow fluctuations. There is still short - term inventory removal momentum [2] - Port inventory is 1.5578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons (a year - on - year increase of 56.06%). It is expected to continue to accumulate next week due to weakened spot buying and restocking demand [2] - Inland enterprise inventory is 340,500 tons, maintaining an inventory removal trend but at a slower pace. It is expected to continue to decline next week [2] Profit - The price of thermal coal in Inner Mongolia has risen, increasing the production cost pressure of methanol. The theoretical profit of coal - based methanol has slightly shrunk [2] - Profits vary by process and downstream industry. Coal - based methanol profits have declined, while profits from coke oven gas - based and gas - based methanol have slightly recovered. Profits of some downstream industries have changed, with glacial acetic acid and MTBE improving, while methane chloride and dimethyl ether have worsened [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - Iran's National Gas Company has implemented a 10 - day gas restriction on petrochemical parks since September 19, affecting three 3.3 - million - ton methanol plants [2] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, a long - short spread strategy of MA1 - 5 is recommended [2]