Great Wall Securities·2025-09-22 04:59Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points marks the beginning of a preventive easing cycle aimed at addressing potential economic downturn risks without the economy being in a substantial recession [2][9]. - Historical performance indicates that during previous preventive easing cycles, the Chinese A-share market was significantly influenced by domestic economic policies and fundamentals, leading to a lack of uniformity in overall trends. In contrast, the Hong Kong stock market, being more closely tied to U.S. dollar liquidity, typically shows more positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index often experiencing significant gains [2][17]. - The report suggests that liquidity may drive market trends more than fundamentals in the current context, particularly benefiting interest-sensitive sectors such as technology growth, including semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine, as well as leading technology stocks in Hong Kong that benefit from improved liquidity [2][17]. Group 2 - The report recommends focusing on the Hang Seng Technology sector, noting that the recent Federal Reserve meeting did not exceed expectations, and despite a hawkish interpretation of the meeting, the statements made were relatively dovish. The current liquidity situation in Hong Kong is still tight, indicating potential for future upward movement [3][18]. - The semiconductor sector is highlighted due to the testing of DUV lithography machines by SMIC, which strengthens the narrative of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry. This development is expected to catalyze market sentiment positively in the short term [3][18].