贵金属周报（AU、AG）：降息如期落地，贵金属宽幅波动-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices fluctuated widely at high levels but continued to rise on a weekly basis. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot predicts two more rate cuts this year. However, due to the market's prior pricing of the rate - cut benefits and the Fed's neutral - to - hawkish tone, the prices first rose and then fell. Later, dovish remarks from Fed officials and the US government's "shutdown" risk drove prices up again. But the strong US economic data may suppress the upward pace of precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong at high levels, but with the approaching National Day holiday, the risk of increased volatility should be watched. In the long - term, the bullish view remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy gold on dips [5]. - The underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. Trump's policy combination will increase the US federal government debt, weaken the US dollar's credit, and combined with expected Fed rate cuts, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued central bank gold purchases, it will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE:行情及基本面指标跟踪 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - London spot gold rose from $3642.635/oz to $3684.650/oz, a weekly increase of 1.15%. Shanghai gold futures' main contract fell from 834.22 yuan/gram to 830.56 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.44%. London spot silver rose from $42.1610/oz to $43.0590/oz, an increase of 2.13%. Shanghai silver futures' main contract fell from 10035 yuan/kg to 9971 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.64%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio rose from 83.13 to 83.30, an increase of 0.20% [4]. 3.1.2 ETF and CFTC Positions - The gold SPDR - ETF持仓 increased from 974.8 tons to 994.56 tons, an increase of 2.03%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓 increased from 15070 tons to 15205 tons, an increase of 0.90%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 4670 contracts to 266410 contracts, an increase of 1.78%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 2399 contracts to 51538 contracts, a decrease of 4.45% [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory Data - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased from 52.95 tons to 57.429 tons, an increase of 8.46%. The COMEX gold inventory increased from 1210.38 tons to 1227.45 tons, an increase of 1.41%. The SHFE silver inventory decreased from 1247 tons to 1159 tons, a decrease of 6.99%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased from 16405 tons to 16300 tons, a decrease of 0.64%. The SGE silver inventory (lagged one week) increased from 1248 tons to 1252 tons, an increase of 0.33% [4]. 3.2 PART TWO:主要宏观指标跟踪 3.2.1 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index rose slightly from 97.6178 to 97.6519, an increase of 0.03%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB fell from 7.1237 to 7.1196, a decrease of 0.06%. The 2 - year US Treasury yield rose from 3.5494% to 3.5673%, an increase of 0.50%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose from 4.0701% to 4.1255%, an increase of 1.36%. The US 10 - year real interest rate rose from 1.7% to 1.75%, an increase of 2.94% [4]. 3.2.2 US Economic Data - The US GDP showed a strong second - quarter growth, but the manufacturing and service PMI both declined. Retail sales data was strong, while consumer confidence declined. Employment cooled significantly, with weak August non - farm payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. Inflation showed signs of rising [53][60][65]. 3.2.3 Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI increased, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data showed different trends in the Eurozone and the UK [73][74]. 3.2.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month. In August 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.02 million ounces (about 2302.279 tons), a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.87 tons). Global central banks continued to be net buyers of gold in 2025, although the pace slowed down. In the first half of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - bought 415.1 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 20.4% [83].