渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.22）-20250922

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - The growth rate of general fiscal expenditure has shown a marginal slowdown, with public budget revenue for January to August 2025 at 148198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while expenditure reached 179324 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [2][3] - Tax revenue has improved, with VAT showing a slight increase in growth rate, driven by manufacturing sales and high-tech industries, while corporate income tax has turned from decline to growth, indicating improved corporate profitability [3] - Public fiscal expenditure growth has slightly decreased, with social security and employment spending growing by 10%, while infrastructure spending has seen a significant decline [4] Fixed Income Research - The expectation for the central bank to restart bond purchases has increased, with a net injection of over 500 billion yuan in the open market during the reporting period [10][11] - The issuance of long-term government bonds has seen improved subscription sentiment, with a total issuance of 735.2 billion yuan during the period [10] - The bond market is currently viewed as a weak asset, with expectations for potential improvements depending on the liquidity situation and equity market performance [12] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is focusing on overseas opportunities and innovative supply chains, with significant developments in drug approvals and partnerships among key companies [13][14] - The industry has experienced mixed performance, with the overall sector PE ratio at 31.43 times, indicating a premium over the broader market [14] - The upcoming European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting is expected to highlight advancements in research from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, presenting investment opportunities in innovative drugs and related sectors [14][15]