如何看待美联储降息25BP？：海外市场周观察（0915-0921）

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, with an expectation of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a more dovish stance compared to previous projections [1][7] - Fed Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, highlighting concerns about a weakening labor market and rising risks to employment [1][7] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement, leading to a mixed reaction in the dollar index and U.S. stock markets post-announcement [1][7] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, up from a previous value of 0.5%, indicating a slight improvement in consumer spending [2][8] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.92 million from 1.93 million, suggesting resilience in the labor market [2][8] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with inflation concerns persisting despite the Fed's actions [1][7] Group 3 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2][28] - In the commodities market, CBOT corn saw the largest increase at 6.46%, while LME three-month lead experienced the largest decline at 0.72% [2][47] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a divergence in global long-term interest rates [2][48]