黑色金属数据日报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The demand for steel in the peak season is not strong, with marginal improvement in building material apparent demand. There is a cost - support due to pre - National Day furnace charge replenishment, but high building material production raises concerns for the distant market. Futures unilateral trading lacks strong rebound drive, and it's recommended to wait and see. For basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider rolling profit - taking before the National Day [2]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Market sentiment has improved, but there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from loss to profit, supply is increasing, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely. With the arrival of the peak season, there are risks of decreased iron - water and electric - furnace operation, and high inventory needs to be digested [3][5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot prices are rising, and with domestic policy expectations and overseas interest - rate cuts, there is strong bottom support. Before the National Day, it's advisable to go long on dips, but also pay attention to taking profits at high prices [6]. - Iron Ore: During the replenishment period, there is support for iron ore prices, but the upward space depends on the steel demand. Long - term, it's recommended to go long on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Futures Market - Prices and Changes on September 19: - Far - month Contracts: RB2605 closed at 3232 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (0.75%); HC2605 at 3384 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.21%); I2605 at 786 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.77%); J2605 at 1883 yuan/ton, up 29.5 yuan (1.59%); JM2605 at 1334 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan (2.42%) [1]. - Near - month Contracts: RB2601 closed at 3172 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan (0.73%); HC2601 at 3374 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.18%); I2601 at 807.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.81%); J2601 at 1738.5 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (0.75%); JM2601 at 1232 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan (-1.36%) [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: - Cross - month Spreads: RB2601 - 2605 was - 60 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 10 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; I2601 - 2605 was 21.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 - 2605 was - 144.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 102 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. - Other Ratios: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.93, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.41, down 0.01; the rebar disk profit was - 87.38 yuan/ton, down 2.13 yuan; the coking disk profit was 99.94 yuan/ton, down 8.41 yuan [1]. Spot Market - Steel: Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 106.55, up 1.35 [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3460 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the billet - to - product spread was 230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; Rizhao Port PB ore was 794 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. - Others: Qingdao Super Special Powder was 702 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; another type of ore was 743 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; Ganqimaodu coking coal was 1215 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1430 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port PB ore was 790 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. Trading Strategies - Steel: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. For the disk arbitrage, consider narrowing the spread of the 01 contract coil - to - rebar spread around 180 and take profit. For basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider taking profit according to the spot exposure before the National Day [2][8]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Industrial customers should focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage [8]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Before the National Day, go long on dips and take profits at high prices [6][8]. - Iron Ore: Continue the strategy of going long on dips [7][8].