宏观金融数据日报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index trend continues to be bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A-share market to run in a "slow bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday. The market has policy expectations for the "922" press conference, and last year's similar press conference launched a series of policy "combinations." Last week, positive factors were mainly overseas, with positive signals from Sino-US economic and trade talks and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year being beneficial to A-shares, while domestic economic data was poor, increasing the necessity of promoting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and expanding fiscal policies [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Interest Rates: DRO01 closed at 1.46 with a -4.83bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a -4.70bp change, GC001 at 1.40 with a 17.50bp change, GC007 at 1.55 with an 8.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.56 with a 0.60bp change, LPR 5-year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1-year treasury at 1.41 with a 0.62bp change, 5-year treasury at 1.62 with a 2.97bp change, 10-year treasury at 1.88 with a 2.54bp change, and 10-year US treasury at 4.14 with a 3.00bp change [4] - Stock Index Futures: On September 22, the closing prices and changes of stock index futures were as follows:沪深300 closed at 4502 with a 0.08% change, IF当月 at 4510 with a 0.5% change, 上证50 at 2910 with a -0.11% change, IH当月 at 2918 with a 0.3% change, 中证500 at 7170 with a -0.41% change, IC当月 at 7182 with a 0.1% change, 中证1000 at 7438 with a -0.51% change, IM当月 at 7448 with a -0.1% change. The trading volume and open interest of IF decreased by 25.9 and 11.0 respectively, IH by 33.1 and 16.6, IC by 20.6 and 9.2, and IM by 25.7 and 10.1 [6] - Stock Market Review: The previous day's closing, 沪深300 fell 0.21% to 4523.3, 上证50 fell 0.5% to 2947.8, 中证500 rose 0.75% to 7191, 中证1000 rose 0.92% to 7483.6. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31352 billion, a significant increase of 7584 billion. Most industry sectors fell, while the automobile service and tourism hotel sectors strengthened, and the precious metals, energy metals, non-ferrous metals, real estate services, diversified finance, small metals, and securities sectors led the decline [6] - Open Market Operations: Last week, the central bank had 12645 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due. It conducted 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit operations, and 6000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net full - caliber injection of 11923 billion yuan. This week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on September 25 [4][5] Market Expectations - The market has policy expectations for the "922" press conference. Last year's similar press conference launched a series of policy "combinations" including comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, stock repurchase re - loans, and securities - fund - insurance company swap facilities [7] Ascending and Descending Water Conditions - The ascending and descending water conditions of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF升贴水 for the next - month contract is 4.65%, the current - quarter contract is 3.42%, and the next - quarter contract is 2.77%; IH升贴水 for the next - month contract is - 1.67%, the current - quarter contract is - 0.52%, and the next - quarter contract is - 0.38%; IC升贴水 for the next - month contract is 12.79%, the current - quarter contract is 10.66%, and the next - quarter contract is 9.85%; IM升贴水 for the next - month contract is 17.81%, the current - quarter contract is 13.64%, and the next - quarter contract is 12.51% [8]