长江期货养殖产业周报-20250922

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - Pig Industry: The decline in pig prices has slowed down due to the support of the state's purchase and storage policies and the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals. However, the supply in September is increasing, and the high weight of pigs restricts the rebound of prices. In the medium - and long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase, and the price outlook is not optimistic, except for a possible relative strengthening in the second half of next year [4][54]. - Egg Industry: The egg market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern in the futures market. In the short term, the support for egg prices is expected to weaken, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the culling of laying hens and environmental protection policies [5][84]. - Corn Industry: During the new corn listing period, the futures price faces pressure to rebound. In the short term, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated listing. In the long - term, the cost support has decreased, and the price fluctuation center may move down, but attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [6][106]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the national spot price was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.63 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.93 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg. The futures price of pig 2511 was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 430 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was 105 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [4][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Average weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.13 kg to 128.45 kg; the fat - to - standard price difference remained unchanged at 0.39 yuan. The daily average slaughter rate increased by 0.34% to 31.83%, and the daily average slaughter volume increased by 1,438 heads to 131,717 heads. The frozen product inventory rate increased by 0.26% to 17.91%. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 9.67 yuan/head, down 30.79 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 222.56 yuan/head, down 27.75 yuan/head [16]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased slowly from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [19]. 3.2 Egg Industry 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.66 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.59 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 3,112 yuan/500 kg, up 72 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 308 yuan/500 kg, up 78 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][84]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - The national weekly utilization rate of hatching eggs for laying hens was 64%, unchanged from last week. The number of culled laying hens was 17.61 million, an increase of 130,000 from last week. The production and circulation inventories increased by 0.03 and 0.07 days respectively to 0.94 and 1.06 days [60]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - opened laying hens in September corresponded to the relatively high replenishment in May 2025. The culling of laying hens was normal, and the overall egg supply was sufficient. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down [84]. 3.3 Corn Industry 3.3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][106]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - The corn arrival volume at the four northern ports decreased by 216,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The inventory at the northern and southern ports decreased by 530,000 tons and 55,000 tons respectively to 870,000 tons and 601,000 tons. The opening rate of deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.01% to 48.15% [91]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The old - crop corn in the market is in limited supply, and new - crop corn has started to be listed in some areas in the Northeast. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. In the long - term, the corn planting in the 25/26 season is stable, and the cost support has decreased [106].