国债周报：债期市场情绪仍偏弱-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond futures market sentiment was weak this week, with the market rising first and then falling. The first half - week's recovery was due to the pricing of marginal positives around the central bank's restart of bond - buying. The sharp decline on Friday was triggered by the poor issuance of 30 - year bonds and the rumor of a 500 - billion to 1 - trillion - yuan support policy. The market formed a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and bond prices were under pressure. Also, market funds tightened marginally in the second half of the week, despite the central bank's net injection of 562.3 billion yuan. Looking forward, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by positive monetary policy signals, a stable capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields. In the long - term, weak effective demand and a deflationary trend are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [4][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - Market Performance: The market rose slightly in the first four days and fell sharply on Friday, closing slightly lower for the week. The early - week recovery was related to the central bank's bond - buying speculation, and the Friday decline was due to bond issuance results and policy rumors. Some bond futures contracts showed different price changes, such as TL2512 with a - 0.41% weekly decline and T2512 with a 0.12% weekly increase [4][5]. - Market Influencing Factors: In the second half of the week, market funds tightened marginally. The central bank's net injection of 562.3 billion yuan did not prevent the overnight fund price from rising to nearly 1.5%. The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to an American - style tender [4]. - Outlook: The recent decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by monetary policy, a stable capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields. In the long - term, weak effective demand and deflation are favorable for bond futures, and the bond bull market logic may continue [8]. PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - Open - Market Operations: Information on the volume and price of open - market operations, including currency投放, currency回笼, and net投放, is presented through charts [10][11]. - Medium - term Lending Facility: Charts show the volume and price of MLF, including the monthly values of MLF投放 and收回 [12][13]. - Interest Rates: Various interest rates are presented, such as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, 1 - year MLF rate, loan market quotation rates (LPR) for 1 - year and 5 - year, and deposit reserve ratios for different types of financial institutions [14][16][30]. - Fund Prices: Different types of fund prices are shown, including deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond - pledged repurchase rates. Also, interest rate spreads and trading volumes of some rates are presented [20][22][24]. PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - Treasury Bond Futures Basis: Basis data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [44][45][47]. - Treasury Bond Futures Net Basis: Net basis data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [52][53][57]. - Treasury Bond Futures IRR: Implied repo rate (IRR) data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are given [59][60][62]. - Treasury Bond Futures Implied Interest Rate: Implied interest rate data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [65][66].