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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20250922
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-22 05:14

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [2] - Silver: Neutral [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Bearish [2] - Lead: Bullish [2] - Tin: Neutral [2] - Aluminum: Neutral [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC meeting outcomes were in line with expectations [2]. - Silver: Expected to experience oscillatory adjustments [2]. - Copper: Decrease in warrant inventories supports prices [2]. - Zinc: Likely to perform weakly [2]. - Lead: With marginal improvement in consumption, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [2]. - Tin: Expected to oscillate within a range [2]. - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate within a range [2]. - Alumina: Likely to perform weakly [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: With smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations in play, nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: With short - term supply - demand and cost factors in conflict, steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 827.50 with a daily increase of 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 838.26 with a night - session increase of 1.02%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9940 with a daily increase of 1.33%, and the night - session closing price was 10204.00 with a night - session increase of 2.68% [5]. - Inventory: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 999 kg to 57429 kg, while Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 44080 kg to 1159443 kg [5]. - Macro and Industry News: The leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and Trump planned to meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC meeting and visit China early next year [6]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity was 0, and silver trend intensity was 1 [9]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79850 with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 80080 with a night - session increase of 0.29% [11]. - Inventory: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 631 tons to 31838 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1225 tons to 147650 tons [11]. - Macro and Industry News: Panama planned to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine, and China's copper production in September was expected to decline [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity was 0 [13]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22040 with a decrease of 0.02%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2898.5 with a decrease of 0.50% [14]. - Inventory: Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 1710 tons to 52531 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 47825 tons [14]. - News: Shanghai optimized and adjusted the property tax policy, exempting the first - home from property tax [15]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity was - 1 [16]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17180 with an increase of 0.20%, and the LME lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2003 with a decrease of 0.05% [17]. - Inventory: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 2086 tons to 47289 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2375 tons to 220300 tons [17]. - News: Fed Kashkari thought two more interest rate cuts this year were appropriate [17]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity was 0 [17]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 268770 with a decrease of 0.12%, and the LME tin 3M electronic - disk closing price was 34220 with an increase of 1.39% [20]. - Inventory: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 356 tons to 6558 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 140 tons to 2505 tons [20]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to the gold and silver section, including the China - US leaders' phone call and other events [21]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity was 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20795, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2953 [23]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained at 63.60 million tons, and Australian alumina FOB price decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 320 dollars/ton [23]. - Comprehensive News: New Fed governor Milan planned to continue interest rate cuts in the next few months [25]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity was 0, alumina trend intensity was - 1, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensity was 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121500, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12860 [26]. - Industry News: An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, and Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [26][27]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity was 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity was 0 [31].