原油周报（SC）：暂缺明显逻辑驱动，油价维持震荡表现-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on oil prices is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Without an obvious logical driver, oil prices are expected to maintain an oscillating performance. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and compensatory production cuts offset some pessimistic sentiment. The end of the summer consumption peak season and the political tendency of the US (Trump) to suppress oil prices will keep oil prices oscillating in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium to Long - Term): Bearish. EIA raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. In August 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production data shows an overall upward trend in some regions [3]. - Demand (Medium to Long - Term): Neutral. Different institutions have different adjustment trends for the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, but overall, the demand shows a certain upward trend [3]. - Inventory (Short - Term): Neutral. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly in the week ending September 12, while refined oil inventory had different changes [3]. - Industrial Policy (Medium to Long - Term): Bearish. OPEC+ agrees to increase production in October 2025, and countries that over - produce will compensate for the excess production [3]. - Geopolitics (Short - Term): Neutral. Trump's actions and statements may have an impact on oil prices, but the current impact is relatively neutral [3]. - Macro - finance (Short - Term): Bullish. The Fed cuts interest rates, and Sino - US relations show positive signals [3]. - Investment View: Oscillating. Given the above factors, short - term oil prices will oscillate [3]. - Trading Strategy: For both unilateral and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - Market Review: Oil prices oscillated this week. The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but EIA data increased bearish sentiment. As of September 19, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices had different changes [6]. - Month - spread and Internal - external Spread: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [10]. - Forward Curve: The far - month is moving towards a contango structure [23]. - Crack Spread: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, declined [26][36]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Production - OPEC production increased in August 2025, with different data from EIA, OPEC, and IEA [46][54]. - Non - OPEC countries' production also increased [56]. - US weekly crude oil production decreased to 1348.2 barrels per day in the week ending September 12, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [69][78]. - Inventory - US commercial inventory decreased, and Cushing inventory decreased [79]. - Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [87]. - Chinese port and commercial inventories of crude oil and refined oil had different changes [97][102]. - Demand - In the US, gasoline implied demand rebounded, and refinery operating rates decreased slightly [107][117]. - In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly [118][125]. - Chinese refinery profits: Main - refinery gross margins and gasoline - diesel crack spreads declined [126]. - Macro - finance: The Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the US dollar index weakened [139]. - CFTC Position: The speculative net short positions of WTI crude oil decreased [148].