【PVC周报（PVC）】：宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡-20250922

PART ONE: Main Points and Strategy Overview 1. PVC Main Weekly Data Summary - Price Data: The latest PVC main contract price is 4950 yuan/ton, up 1.52% from last week; the near - month price is 4838 yuan/ton, up 2.74%; the Changzhou Salt Lake price is 4740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%; the Changzhou Yihua price is 4750 yuan/ton, up 1.71%; the Changzhou E'rong price is 4780 yuan/ton, up 1.70%; the northwest calcium carbide price is 2550 yuan/ton, up 6.25%; the East China ethylene price is 6850 yuan/ton, down 3.18% [4]. - Production Data: China's PVC production is 46.09 million tons, down 3.74%; calcium carbide - based production is 32.86 million tons, down 3.15%; ethylene - based production is 13.23 million tons, down 5.16% [4]. - Capacity Utilization Data: China's overall PVC capacity utilization is 76.96%, down 3.73%; calcium carbide capacity utilization is 64.15%, down 3.02%; calcium carbide - based capacity utilization is 76.89%, down 3.15%; ethylene - based capacity utilization is 77.12%, down 5.15% [4]. - Inventory Data: Social inventory is 53.46 million tons, up 0.56%; factory inventory is 30.62 million tons, down 1.20%; calcium carbide - based factory inventory is 24.10 million tons, down 1.31%; ethylene - based factory inventory is 6.52 million tons, down 0.82% [4]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization and Sales Rate: Profile capacity utilization is 39.43%, up 0.54%; pipe capacity utilization is 39.13%, up 4.04%; northwest sales rate is 216.57%, up 9.44%; Shandong sales rate is 221.51%, up 29.17% [4]. - Cost and Profit Data: Integrated profit is 449.07 yuan/ton, up 2.28%; externally - purchased chlor - alkali profit is - 652.20 yuan/ton, up 2.96% [4]. PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - PVC prices fluctuated in the range of 4710 - 4840 yuan/ton, 4800 - 4850 yuan/ton, 4570 - 4670 yuan/ton, and 4690 - 4750 yuan/ton [6]. PART THREE: PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - There are multiple historical data charts showing the trends of various PVC - related indicators from 2019 to 2025, including price, production, capacity utilization, inventory, and cost - profit, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [16][18][19]. Variety View Evaluation System | View Rating | Short - term (Within 1 month) | Medium - term (1 - 3 months) | Long - term (Over 3 months) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Strongly Bullish | Rise over 15% | Rise over 15% | Rise over 15% | | Bullish | Rise 5 - 15% | Rise 5 - 15% | Rise 5 - 15% | | Sideways | Fluctuation - 5% - 5% | Fluctuation - 5% - 5% | Fluctuation - 5% - 5% | | Bearish | Fall 5 - 15% | Fall 5 - 15% | Fall 5 - 15% | | Strongly Bearish | Fall over 15% | Fall over 15% | Fall over 15% | [89]