Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The rebound of soybean meal futures prices is limited, and they may fluctuate at a low level in the future. Palm oil prices have broken down and are expected to remain weak. Egg prices have limited rebound and may decline again [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Soybean Meal Rebound Limited - In the third week of September, soybean meal futures prices dropped significantly due to expectations of increased domestic soybean imports and high oil - mill压榨量. But at the weekend, some short - sellers closed positions, and spot market support led to a low - level rebound, though the space is limited [2]. - Imported soybeans are arriving in large quantities, with high supply and increasing inventory. In August 2025, China's soybean imports reached 12.28 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 73.31 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. The expected arrivals in September, October, and November are 10.3 million, 9 million, and 7.5 million tons respectively. As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.17 million tons, a 0.86% week - on - week increase [3]. - Oil mills are urging提货, and the提货量 of soybean meal has returned to a high level. As of September 12, the weekly inventory提货量 of soybean meal rose to 1.6001 million tons, a 7.14% week - on - week increase. Feed enterprise inventory days reached 9.22 days, a 10.39% year - on - year increase [3][4]. - The cost of imported soybeans is high, and the downstream demand for soybean meal may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term. Currently, the demand is supported by high pig inventory, but national policies to regulate pig production may reduce future demand [6]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of soybean meal has rebounded at a low level, standing above the 5 - day moving average, but the 10 - day moving average may pose strong resistance [7]. - For the 2601 contract of soybean meal, the strategy is to go short on rallies, with a target range of 3040 - 3050, a defense range of 3070 - 3080, a first target of 3000 - 3010, and a second target of 2980 - 2990 [8][9]. 2. Palm Oil Breaks Down - In the third week of September, palm oil futures prices broke down. The decline was due to falling international crude oil prices, an unclear US bio - fuel policy, a bearish MPOB monthly report, weak Malaysian palm oil exports, and increased domestic imports and inventory [9]. - Malaysian palm oil exports have weakened, and production is still variable. In the first half of September, production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month due to rainfall, but there is still an expectation of increased production. The export data from different institutions are inconsistent, showing overall weakness [12]. - The US bio - fuel policy is unclear, and the decline of related soybean oil prices has dragged down palm oil prices. The proposed re - allocation of bio - fuel blending obligations by the US EPA has increased uncertainty [13]. - Malaysia has raised the reference price of palm oil, and India's peak import period has passed, which may lead to a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports. China's palm oil imports have increased month - on - month, and inventory has also risen. As of September 12, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 641,500 tons, a 3.58% month - on - month and 24.92% year - on - year increase [13][15]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of palm oil has fallen below the 40 - day moving average, with a continuous decline in MACD close to the zero - axis and a continuation of the green column, indicating a weak trend and a risk of further decline [16]. - For the 2601 contract of palm oil, the strategy is to focus on short - selling, with a target range of 9336 - 9360, a defense range of 9380 - 9390, a first target of 9280 - 9300, and a second target of 9250 - 9260 [17]. 3. Egg Rebound is Weak - In the third week of September, egg futures prices rebounded but were blocked and then declined. The initial rebound was due to pre - holiday stocking demand, but as stocking neared completion, demand support weakened, while supply increased due to high egg - laying hen inventory, improved laying rates, and the release of cold - storage eggs [19]. - Egg - laying hen inventory is high, resulting in large supply pressure. As of August 2025, the inventory of laying hens was 1.317 billion, a 2% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year increase. Although there is an expectation of a slight decline in September, the inventory is still expected to be over 1.3 billion [20]. - Under high supply pressure, the number of culled hens by the breeding end has increased. As of the week of September 18, the total number of culled hens was 576,200, a 2.05% week - on - week increase [22]. - Egg industry inventory has increased. As of September 18, the production - link inventory was 0.50 days, a 11.11% week - on - week increase, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, a 22.78% week - on - week increase [23]. - The decline in cost has put pressure on egg prices. Feed costs account for over 80% of egg - laying hen breeding costs, and the prices of corn and soybean meal have dropped, leading to a decline in comprehensive breeding costs [24]. - Technically, the main 2511 contract of eggs rebounded above the short - term moving average but lacked upward momentum, and the 40 - day moving average posed strong resistance [26]. - For the 2511 contract of eggs, the strategy is to go short on rallies, with a target range of 3148 - 3170, a defense range of 3190 - 3200, a first target of 3082 - 3100, and a second target of 3050 - 3070 [27].
豆粕反弹受限、棕油下挫、鸡蛋走低
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-09-22 05:34