Report Summary of Agricultural Products (Soybean and Meal) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The domestic soybean purchase margin has worsened. Due to the comprehensive import cost support from the US market and premiums, the downside space of the futures market is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. The focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - Spot and Futures Basis: On September 19th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 26 with a decrease of 1, in Tianjin it was 26 with an increase of 19, in Rizhao it was - 54 with a decrease of 21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 64 with a decrease of 21, in Dongguan it was - 64 with a decrease of 11, in Zhanjiang it was - 24, and in Fangcheng it was - 64 with a decrease of 21. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 136 with a decrease of 19 [6] - Spread: The M1 - M5 spread was 228, the M1 - RM1 spread, the RM1 - 5 spread, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 360 with an increase of 10, and the futures spread of the main contract was 492 with a decrease of 31 [6][7] 3.2 Supply Situation - International: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 63%. Recently, there has been less rainfall in the production areas, and the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline. There may be room for a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit area in the future [7] - Domestic: In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start to decline, but the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. Currently, the progress of soybean purchases for November is slow, and the supply of soybeans in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, but the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8] 3.3 Demand Situation - Livestock and Poultry: The expected high inventory of pig and poultry farming will support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of the downstream soybean meal has increased [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - Soybean: Domestic soybean stocks have increased to a high level [8] - Soybean Meal: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year and is expected to be in a short - term inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] 3.5 Market Outlook - The futures market of soybean meal will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-22 05:44