聚酯周报:原油大幅下跌弱势,芳烃季节性转弱-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-22 05:34
- Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly bearish as there is no obvious driving force [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that due to factors such as the decline in crude oil prices, the return of domestic PTA device supply, and the seasonal weakening of aromatics, the PTA market shows a weak trend. Although the downstream load of polyester remains at a high level, there is still no obvious driving force in the market, and it is expected to be mainly bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. Crude oil prices are falling, domestic PTA device supply is gradually returning, PTA basis is weakening, and PX device operating rate is rising while the spread between PX and naphtha is shrinking [3]. - Demand: Bullish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 91%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the load of the weaving end has increased slightly [3]. - Inventory: Neutral. PTA port inventory has decreased by 40,000 tons [3]. - Basis: Bearish. PTA basis has weakened rapidly, profits have continued to shrink, and market liquidity is very loose [3]. - Profit: Bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $220, and PTA processing fees remain at around 150 yuan and have shrunk [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. PTA prices are at a neutral to low level, and aromatics supply has increased due to the return of reforming devices and the postponement of domestic PX mainstream device overhauls [3]. - Macro Policy: Neutral. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [3][8]. - Investment View: Oscillating. Expected to be mainly bearish with no obvious driving force [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Crude Oil: Geopolitical crises still exist, and prices have dropped significantly. Trump called for further price cuts. Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased sharply in the week of September 14, but the four - week average export volume increased slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 [5][8]. - Gasoline: The peak season for gasoline is ending, and the premium of high - octane components is weakening. Refinery operating rates have risen to 94.9%, gasoline production has decreased to 9.6 million barrels per day, and total gasoline inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels compared to last week. The driving season will end at the end of September [23]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - Supply - Side Changes: Overhauled devices are returning, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply has increased. Some refineries have device maintenance and new device production plans, which will affect the supply of pure benzene, toluene, and xylene [32][53]. - Profit Situation: Selective disproportionation profit has declined, and pure benzene prices are suppressing disproportionation profit. The spread between PX and naphtha has shrunk, and PX short - process profit is still supported [49][54]. - Market Conditions: The US - Asia MX spread has widened, but there is no news of exports from South Korea to the US. The spot PX price is gradually falling, and the spread between PX and naphtha has decreased [60]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is returning, and prices are weak. East China ethylene glycol port inventory is 465,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline. Overseas imports are expected to decrease, but domestic device production is pressuring prices [75][83]. - Polyester: It maintains a high load, but production is increasing while the downstream is entering the off - season. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under pressure [89][101].