航运衍生品数据日报-20250922

Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report provided by the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4][5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows an overall trend of weak oscillation, with the 10 - contract experiencing a significant decline [8] - In the European - route shipping market, based on EPMI data, the cargo volume is expected to bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late September to late October, shipping companies will compete for cargoes, but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rates will drop to the lowest point in May this year by late October, and shipping companies will start to support prices through contracts after the cargo volume recovers in November [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Index - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently 1198, down 14.31% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1120, down 0.45% [6] - For different routes, SCFI - US West is down 30.97%, SCFIS - US West is up 37.65%, SCFI - US East is down 22.68%, SCFI - Northwest Europe is down 8.84%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is down 8.05%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is down 5.75% [6] Contracts - For different EC contracts, the prices of all contracts show a downward trend, with the 10 - contract (EC2510) having a relatively large decline of 5.01% [6] Positions - The positions of different contracts are increasing, such as the EC2606 position increasing by 52, the EC2608 position increasing by 28, the EC2410 position increasing by 542, the EC2412 position increasing by 1510, and the EC2604 position increasing by 307 [6] Monthly Spreads - The 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently - 579.5, down 40.1 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is 67.5, down 11.7; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 380.0, down 10.1 [6] Spot Prices - This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, QA dropped to 1550, PA dropped to 1400, and NSC dropped to 1600. The FM freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500 [9] Strategies - A positive spread strategy is recommended for the 10 - 12 contracts [10]