【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】：股指震荡运行，大金融领跌-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth momentum in China slowed down in August, with multiple indicators such as prices, investment, and consumption weakening, increasing the necessity for policy support. Policy is guiding the further growth of "service consumption". There are expectations for policies from the upcoming "922" press conference. The overseas situation is positive, with positive signals from the China-US economic and trade talks and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year. However, the domestic economic data is poor, and there is a need for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending. The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims for a "slow bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influence Factors and Logic - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In August, China's economic growth slowed, with industrial production, investment, and consumption weakening. The year-on-year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year-on-year growth of national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to August was 0.5%. Policy support for the economy is necessary [3]. - Macro Policy: The policy is guiding the growth of service consumption, with over 30 policies already introduced and more to come. The "922" press conference has raised policy expectations, similar to the "924" policy "combination punch" last year [3]. - Overseas Factors: The China-US Madrid economic and trade talks had a positive tone. The Fed cut interest rates by 20bp in September 2025, and the dot - plot shows possible further rate cuts [3]. - Liquidity: As of September 18, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - Investment View and Strategy - View: Control positions before the holiday, adjust and go long, and expect a "slow bull" pattern in the A - share market [3]. - Strategy: Control positions unilaterally before the holiday, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9; the SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7; the CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3; the CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2 [5]. - Industry Index Performance: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (3.1%), electronics (3%), automobiles (3%), machinery and equipment (2.2%), and social services (1.7%) led the gains, while banking (-4.2%), non - ferrous metals (-4%), non - bank finance (-3.7%), steel (-3%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-2.7%) led the losses [9]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 17.61%, 18.63%, 12.92%, and 11.24% respectively, while the open interests decreased by 7.73%, 4.25%, 8.04%, and 2.08% respectively [11]. - Cross - Variety Spread: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 was at 1592.2, at the 94.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at 267.8, at the 43.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 32.7% historical quantile level; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 26.6% historical quantile level [16]. Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - Central Bank Operations: This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 11923 billion yuan. Next week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will expire on September 25 [22]. - Market Liquidity Indicators: As of September 18, the A - share margin trading balance was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of September 19, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.29, at the 51.8% quantile level in the past decade [29]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - Macroeconomic Indicators: In August, various economic indicators showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value was 5.2%, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment from January to August was 0.5%. The CPI was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9% [32]. - Industry - Specific Indicators: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction also had their own performance trends. For example, in the real estate industry, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued; in the manufacturing industry, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4% [32][34][37]. - Corporate Earnings: The earnings of major broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices showed different growth rates and ROE levels. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of the CSI 300 in Q2 2025 was 2.49%, and the ROE (TTM) was 9.71% [44][45]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - Recent Policy Movements: A series of policies have been introduced, including policies to promote service consumption, optimize real estate policies, and provide fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans. For example, on September 17, the Ministry of Commerce announced policies to promote service consumption; on September 5, Shenzhen optimized real estate policies [49][50]. Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In August, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 52%, the consumer confidence index was 55.4, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 22000. The year - on - year growth of PCE was 0%, and the year - on - year growth of CPI was 2.9% [59][62]. - Trump Team's Actions: Trump has proposed and implemented a series of tariff policies, including tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which have led to trade frictions and counter - measures [66][68].