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日度策略参考-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-22 06:09

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - Stock Index: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - Silver: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - Copper: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - Aluminum: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - Alumina: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - Zinc: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - Nickel: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - Tin: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - PTA: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - Benzene and Styrene: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - Urea: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - PE: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - PVC: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - Soybean Oil: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - Cotton: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - Sugar: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - Corn: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - Soybean Meal: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - Paper Pulp: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - Logs: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - Live Pigs: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe): Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].