工业硅偏强运行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - On Friday, the industrial silicon futures rose sharply in the afternoon, breaking through the high of Tuesday, mainly influenced by capital behavior, overall commodity sentiment, and policy news. The current spot price of industrial silicon is stable, with a slight increase in inventory. Continued attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. The industrial silicon futures are running strongly [2]. - Maintain the idea of buying on dips. The recommended attention range is 9080 - 9150, and the stop - loss range is 8950 - 8990 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - Supply: According to Nonferrous Network data, this week, the weekly output of industrial silicon from sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 0.15 million tons to 3.36 million tons, and the operating rate increased by 3.1% to 69.36%. In Yunnan, the weekly output increased slightly by 50 tons to 7565 tons, and in Sichuan, it remained flat at 2135 tons. As the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage in the southwest region is more obvious, accelerating the resumption of production of silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing. The wet season in the southwest lasts until October, followed by the normal - water season in November and the dry season in December, with expected production cuts in the future. Some large factories in Xinjiang maintain a stable production rhythm. Overall, the supply shows a pattern of stable production in the northwest and shrinking capacity in the southwest [6][7]. - Demand: The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. Organic silicon's operating rate is generally stable this week, with a relatively stable demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory and operating rate of the downstream polysilicon industry are rising, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. Frequent industry meetings have stimulated positive market expectations. In the aluminum alloy sector, the overall inventory continues to rise significantly, the operating rate of the aluminum - silicon alloy industry shows a slight increasing trend, and downstream orders are good, promoting the increase of the operating rate. In general, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is stable [8][9]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased slightly by 0.4 million tons to 54.3 million tons, still at a high level in the same period. The downstream industrial silicon inventory was 22.15 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. As of September 19, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for industrial silicon was 49,874 lots, basically unchanged from the previous week [10]. Capital Position Analysis - At the close, the position of the 2511 main contract was 311,097 lots, an increase of 26,045 lots. The long - short list shows that the top 20 long - position seats increased by 16,175 lots, and the top 20 short - position seats increased by 13,349 lots. Although the long positions increased more than the short positions, the net short position still reached 31,225 lots [11]. Technical Analysis - On the daily level, the EMA5, 10, and 20 - day moving averages are diverging upward, and the MACD forms a golden cross upward. On Friday afternoon, it broke through the previous high, indicating strong bullish power. The upper pressure is near the previous high, and the lower support is near the neckline and the EMA5 daily line. It is recommended to pay attention to the strength on dips. The band winner indicator shows that the long - short spectrum line on the daily level is red and upward, and the red ladder line appears, with the three - line resonance diverging upward, indicating overall strong operation [13][15].