Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] Core Views - Oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing, with oversupply remaining the core driver. Short - term geopolitical disturbances have less impact, and the downward pressure on oil prices is significant [1]. - Cost - side oil prices are weakening, downstream chemical开工率 is declining, and LPG is expected to remain bearish [1]. - Cost support is weak, previously shut - down devices are resuming operation, and the upward driving force for L is insufficient despite strong supply and demand [1]. - High maintenance cannot offset high expansion in the PP market, and the peak season is under - performing expectations. The spot market is weak, and the basis is at a low level [1]. - Cost support for PVC has improved, and exports remain strong. Although the fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, there is a rebound due to high - level decline in warehouse receipts [1]. - Supply - side and demand - side changes in PX lead to a looser expectation of tight balance, and it is oscillating weakly under macro - pressure [30]. - For PTA, the expected increase in device maintenance will ease supply - side pressure, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is under - performing, and the demand side is weak [34]. - Domestic ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have changed little, and the consumption season is under - performing, but low inventory provides some support [39]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure remains large, but the demand side has improved, and the cost support is stabilizing. There is limited downward space [42]. - Urea has strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, and the fundamentals remain weak [47]. - US natural gas inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, causing gas prices to weaken, but the need for winter gas storage provides some support [4]. - Cost - side oil prices are weakening, and asphalt supply and demand are generally loose, with high valuation [4]. - The glass market has a strong supply pressure, and the peak - season demand provides short - term support, but the medium - and long - term pattern is loose [4]. - The demand for soda ash has slightly improved, but the supply is expected to remain loose in the medium - and long - term [4]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.69%, Brent down 1.52%, and SC down 0.70% [5]. - Fundamentals: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, but there is a long - term oversupply risk [6]. As of September 12, US net imports decreased, exports increased, and commercial crude inventory decreased [7]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. SC focuses on the range of [480 - 490] [8]. LPG - Market Performance: On September 19, the PG main contract closed at 4368 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [10]. - Fundamentals: Cost - side oil supply exceeds demand, and downstream chemical profits have declined, with reduced开工率. Supply has increased, and inventory has risen [11]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4250 - 4350] [12]. L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [15]. - Fundamentals: Cost support is weak, devices are resuming operation, and supply is increasing. The peak season for shed films has begun, and demand support is strengthening, but the upward driving force is insufficient [17]. - Strategy: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long. L focuses on the range of [7100 - 7200] [17]. PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 contract closed at 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [20]. - Fundamentals: Cost - side oil is weak, high expansion outweighs high maintenance, and the peak season is disappointing. The basis is at a low level, and downstream demand is slowly increasing [22]. - Strategy: The industry can hedge on rallies. PP focuses on the range of [6850 - 7000] [22]. PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 contract closed at 4950 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [25]. - Fundamentals: Cost support has improved, exports are strong, and warehouse receipts have decreased. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and social inventory has increased for 13 consecutive weeks [27]. - Strategy: Buy on dips due to low valuation. V focuses on the range of [4900 - 5050] [27]. PX - Market Performance: On September 19, PX spot price was 6773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The main contract's trading volume and open interest increased [30]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side devices have slightly increased their load, and demand - side PTA may have more maintenance in the future. Inventory is high, and PXN is relatively high this year. Macro - factors put pressure on prices [30]. - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. PX511 focuses on the range of [6525 - 6630] [31]. PTA - Market Performance: On September 19, PTA in East China was 4555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4604 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [33]. - Fundamentals: Device maintenance is expected to increase, easing supply - side pressure. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is under - performing, and demand is weak. Inventory is decreasing [34]. - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees [2]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4317 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [38]. - Fundamentals: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have changed little, and the consumption season is under - performing. Low inventory provides some support [39]. - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to short on rallies. EG01 focuses on the range of [4230 - 4270] [40]. Methanol - Market Performance: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [41]. - Fundamentals: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and overseas device load has slightly decreased. Demand has improved, and inventory accumulation has slowed down. Cost support is stabilizing [42]. - Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. MA01 focuses on the range of [2340 - 2380] [44]. Urea - Market Performance: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton. The main contract closed at 1661 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [46]. - Fundamentals: Supply is strong, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is expected to weaken [47]. - Strategy: Hold short positions and sell call options. Focus on the range of [1645 - 1665] [49]. Natural Gas - Market Performance: As of the week ending September 12, US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2433 billion cubic feet [4]. - Fundamentals: Inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, causing gas prices to weaken, but the need for winter gas storage provides some support [4]. Asphalt - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - Fundamentals: Cost - side oil prices are weakening, and asphalt supply and demand are generally loose, with high valuation [4]. - Strategy: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is strong, and the peak - season demand provides short - term support, but the medium - and long - term pattern is loose [4]. - Strategy: Short - term long, medium - and long - term short on rallies [4]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - Fundamentals: Demand has slightly improved, but the supply is expected to remain loose in the medium - and long - term [4]. - Strategy: Short - term long, medium - and long - term short on rallies [4].
中辉能化观点-20250922
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-22 06:01