长江期货粕类油脂周报-20250922

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on Meal and Oil [1] - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core Viewpoints - Soybean Meal: Supply improvement is expected, and prices are likely to run weakly. Although the cost provides support, prices are unlikely to drop significantly. [5][7] - Oils and Fats: Fundamental support remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The decline in palm oil inventory accumulation and the supply gap in rapeseed before November are expected to limit the downward adjustment range of oil prices. [78][79] Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 1. Market Review - As of September 19, the spot price in East China was 2,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The M2601 contract closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton week-on-week. The basis price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 01 - 90 yuan/ton. [7][9] 2. Fundamental Data Review - Price: Spot and futures prices of soybean meal declined, while the basis price increased. The price difference between regions showed different trends. [13] - Supply: The USDA September supply and demand report adjusted the US soybean planting area, yield, and ending stocks. Brazil has started sowing, and the domestic supply is abundant. [7] - Demand: In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. [7] - Cost: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is estimated to be 1,135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost has risen to 3,030 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Key Data Tracking - Global Supply and Demand: Global soybean supply and demand are tightening, with production declining to 426 million tons and the production-consumption gap narrowing to 1.98 million tons. [15] - US Soybean Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio has tightened to 6.89%. [25] - Pressing and Export Demand: As of the week of September 4, the cumulative export of US soybeans in the 24/25 season was 50.1059 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% compared to the same period last year. [26] - Soybean Growth: As of September 12, the good and excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the defoliation rate was 41%, and the harvest progress was 5%. [31] - Brazilian Export Sales: As of the latest data, Brazil's MT sales progress reached 91.94%, and the overall sales progress was good. [32] - Weather Conditions: In the next two weeks, precipitation in the main US soybean-producing areas will be low, while precipitation in the main Brazilian soybean-producing areas will improve. [39] - US Soybean Planting Cost: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1,135 cents/bushel. [44] - Import and Purchase: The domestic purchase of Brazilian vessels in the near term is progressing steadily and quickly, while the purchase of vessels in the far term is slow. The domestic soybean supply is abundant before November, but the supply may be insufficient after November. [58] - Livestock Inventory: The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the demand for soybean meal, and the bottom demand support for soybean meal is strengthened. [76] Oils and Fats 1. Market Review - As of the week of September 19, the palm oil 01 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 9,316 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 8,328 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 221 yuan/ton to 10,068 yuan/ton. [79] 2. Fundamental Data Review - Palm Oil: The MPOB August report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 2.2 million tons, in line with market expectations. In September, the production is expected to decline, and the export demand remains, so the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. [79][85] - Soybean Oil: The USDA September report adjusted the US soybean production and ending stocks, with a neutral to bearish impact. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the short term, but the supply may tighten after November. [79] - Rapeseed Oil: The anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed have affected imports, and there is a supply gap before November, which supports the price of rapeseed oil. However, policy uncertainties and high inventory levels limit the room for price increases. [79] 3. Key Data Tracking - Malaysian Palm Oil: The MPOB August report had a neutral impact. In September, the production is expected to decline, and the export demand remains, so the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. [79][96] - Indonesian Palm Oil: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month-on-month to 2.53 million tons. The production in June rebounded strongly, but the demand was also strong, resulting in a continued decline in inventory. [105] - Indian Oil Imports: In August, India's total vegetable oil imports increased by 4.75% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons. The inventory as of the week of September 1 was 1.865 million tons, an increase of 8.68% month-on-month. [117] - Malaysian High-Frequency Data: The export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in September showed different trends, with the export volume increasing and the production volume decreasing. [119]