铜周报：降息落地铜价回调，基本面支撑仍强-20250922

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.42%. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, long - positions took profits and copper prices pulled back. Fundamentally, copper concentrate remained in short supply, and the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was at a historical low. During the peak shutdown and maintenance period of smelters from September to October, combined with the insufficient supply of anode copper affected by tax policies, refined copper production might decline month - on - month. Meanwhile, the low domestic copper inventory provided support for copper prices. As the National Day approached, the downstream inventory - building demand might increase, and the demand in the peak season remained to be verified. Domestic policies might be introduced successively, and it was expected that copper prices would maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. - The supply - side contradiction between mines and smelters persisted, with the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate remaining at a historical low. Although the port inventory of copper concentrate rebounded slightly, it was still at a low level over the years. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production remained stable, but in September, the production of electrolytic copper was expected to decrease due to the peak of smelter shutdowns and maintenance and the impact of policies on anode copper supply. On the demand side, downstream consumption showed no obvious improvement, but the operating rate increased slightly approaching the National Day. The operating rate of some copper products decreased, while that of copper foil increased. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and domestic copper social inventory increased, while the LME copper inventory decreased. Considering factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm uncertainty, the weak terminal consumption, and the support from peak - season consumption and high domestic maintenance, copper prices were expected to maintain a high - level and volatile operation before the holiday, and it was recommended to trade with a cautious long - position [4][5]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply - side: As of September 18, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 41.4 dollars/ton, remaining at a historical low. As of September 12, the port inventory of domestic copper concentrate was 574,000 tons, rebounding slightly from a low level but still at a low level over the years. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. In September, due to the peak of smelter shutdowns and maintenance and the impact of policies on anode copper supply, electrolytic copper production was expected to decrease [4][5][32]. - Demand - side: As of September 18, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.49%, a month - on - month increase of 2.96 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.83 percentage points. Some enterprises stocked up in advance for the National Day holiday to avoid the risk of rising raw material prices. The decline in copper prices at the end of the week also increased downstream pick - up. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. The increase in copper prices reduced downstream purchasing willingness, and the growth of downstream orders was less than expected. The operating rate of copper tubes decreased due to the impact of US tariffs, while the operating rate of copper foils increased due to strong downstream demand for lithium - ion copper foils [4][5][36]. - Inventory: As of September 19, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,796 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.51%. As of September 18, the domestic copper social inventory was 148,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. As of September 19, the LME copper inventory was 147,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.09% [4][5][48]. - Strategy Suggestion: Powell's statement on stagflation caused the US dollar to fall first and then rise, leading to a significant decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. High copper prices also suppressed demand, and market long - positions reduced their positions. After the decline in copper prices last week, market trading enthusiasm rebounded. Next week would be the inventory - building period before the National Day, and consumption might gradually recover. Currently, domestic smelters were in a high - maintenance period, but with the supplement of imported copper, the supply - side pressure was not obvious. The terminal consumption was still weak, and domestic and foreign inventories were stable with a slight increase but still fluctuating at a low level. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm was uncertain, and market expectations for future interest - rate cuts were divided. Domestic economic data was poor, and domestic policies might be further strengthened. Affected by the recovery of peak - season consumption and high domestic maintenance, copper prices were expected to maintain a high - level and volatile operation before the holiday, and it was recommended to trade with a cautious long - position [4][5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro Data Overview: China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue. China's social consumer goods retail sales in August increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year. From January to August, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and emphasized the downward risk of employment [13]. - Industry News Overview: The Shanghai Futures Exchange would launch the bonded standard warehouse receipt trading of international copper varieties on September 19. The net long positions of COMEX copper increased. A small part of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia was still in operation after a mudslide accident. China's copper production increased slightly in August, and the production in September was expected to decline. The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark price for the bonded standard warehouse receipt trading of international copper varieties [15]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market and Positioning - Premium and Discount: At the beginning of the week, as it was the last trading day of the SHFE 2509 copper contract, the market's purchasing and sales sentiment declined. As copper prices rose, downstream purchasing sentiment was still poor, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper declined. Then, as copper prices fell approaching the weekend, purchasing sentiment increased, and the premium of Shanghai copper rose. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a stable discount, and the New York - London copper price difference changed little [18]. - Domestic and Overseas Positions: As of September 19, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 73,378 lots per day on average during the week, a week - on - week increase of 3.91%. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, long - positions in Shanghai copper took profits and left the market. As of September 12, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions were 19,044.92 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 12.28%. As of September 16, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions were 42,097 lots, a week - on - week increase of 7.93%, and the net long positions of New York copper increased significantly [22]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - side: Similar to the supply - side content in "Main Viewpoints and Strategies", the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate remained at a low level, and the port inventory of copper concentrate was at a low level over the years. The production of electrolytic copper was expected to decrease in September [32]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased slightly, but the growth of downstream orders was less than expected. The operating rate of copper tubes decreased, and the operating rate of copper foils increased [36]. - Import and Export: As of September 18, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 8.01, and the ratio weakened during the week. The negative value of the spot copper import profit and loss narrowed slightly. In July, China's refined copper import volume was 296,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. In August, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 425,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% [40]. - Inventory: Similar to the inventory content in "Main Viewpoints and Strategies", the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and domestic copper social inventory increased, while the LME copper inventory decreased [48].