美联储鹰派降息，铜高位调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but Powell's hawkish stance led to a rebound in the US dollar index. The market traded on the "buy the fact, sell the expectation" principle, causing copper prices to correct from their highs and give back gains. In the short term, copper prices found support at the 30 - day moving average and rebounded. With the upcoming National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economy - Fed Interest Rate Decision: On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut since December 2024, signaling the start of an interest - rate cut cycle. It was a "risk - management" move to balance inflation and employment risks. It is expected that there may be two more rate cuts this year, and the median interest rate may drop to 3.6% by the end of 2025. However, due to factors such as long - term tariff impacts and an unimproved job market, the US economy may face higher downside risks in 2026, and the actual number of rate cuts may be more. Powell's remarks dampened the market's pricing for a 50bp recession - style rate cut and a significant decline in the terminal interest rate. The Fed's rate cut provides room for China's domestic monetary policy, but in the short term, the central bank may prioritize fiscal stimulus, and the probability of a rate cut is low. The US dollar index rebounded to 97.36, back above the 97 mark [11]. - China's August Macroeconomic Data: Social financing reached a peak and then declined, with weak credit. In August, the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, 465.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year, lower than the seasonal level. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%, the same as the previous month; M1 increased by 6.0% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month. The gap between M2 and M1 narrowed to 2.8%. The growth rate of industrial added value, consumption, and investment all slowed down, and PPI rebounded. The growth momentum needs to be strengthened [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side - Copper Concentrate: In August 2024, China imported 257.4 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a month - on - month increase of 18.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import of copper concentrates was 1.8635 billion tons, a 3.2% increase from the same period last year. As of September 12, the port inventory was only 692,700 tons, 26.2% less than the average of the past three years. As of June 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.916 million tons, a decrease of 81,000 tons or 4.06% from May. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79%, a 0.9% decrease from May. As of September 18, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was - 41.3 dollars/ton, and the copper concentrate TC was - 41.4 dollars/ton, still at a historically low level, with the smelting processing fee deeply inverted [36]. - Scrap Copper: As of September 19, the scrap - refined copper price spread was 1,752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 193 yuan/ton from last Friday, with relatively small fluctuations. In July 2025, China's imports of copper waste and scrap reached 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.3355 million tons, a 0.77% year - on - year decrease. In July, the output of blister copper was 1.0413 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.64%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 6.9267 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.58%. In July, China imported 84,200 tons of anode copper, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. From January to July, the cumulative import was 467,000 tons, a 12.72% year - on - year decrease. The domestic blister copper processing fee remained at 700 yuan/ton, and the CIF imported blister copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, at a historically low level [40]. - Refined Copper: In August, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China decreased by 28,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. From January to August, the cumulative output increased by 978,800 tons year - on - year, an increase of 12.30%. In August, the copper smelting start - up rate was 87.97%, a 0.21% month - on - month decrease. In September, five smelters plan to conduct maintenance, involving a production capacity of 1 million tons. It is expected that the output of electrolytic copper will continue to decline in September. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [45]. - Demand Side - Mid - and Downstream Industries: In August, the output of copper products was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. From January to August, the cumulative output of copper products was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The start - up rates of mid - and downstream processing enterprises rebounded slightly in August. The latest weekly start - up rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.73%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 23.33%, a 0.66% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises was 65.84%, a 1.78% month - on - month decrease [52]. - Terminal Demand: From January to July, power grid project investment reached 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. Power source project investment reached 428.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 223.2GW. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the expected new installed capacity for this year to 270 - 300GW. In 2025 from January to August, the real estate market continued to bottom out. In August, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% year - on - year, accounting for 48.8% of total new vehicle sales. In September, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, and the online and offline sales of air conditioners and color TVs in the second week of September also declined year - on - year [59]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - Short - Term Outlook: With the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices corrected from their highs. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits [6][77]. - Long - Term Outlook: Copper is highly regarded in the long term as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77].