Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel futures fluctuated upward with strong performance. In terms of supply and demand, hot metal production remained above 2.4 million tons, at a relatively high level. Rebar production decreased month - on - month, demand rebounded, and inventory started to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils were generally stable, with both production and demand at high levels. There were no significant contradictions in iron ore and coking coal on the raw material side. With high hot metal production, demand was guaranteed. Although coking coal production continued to recover month - on - month, it was still lower than the same period last year. Currently, the pressure on the black market is mainly reflected in rebar, but the inventory and warehouse receipt volume in Hangzhou decreased, and the spot pressure improved marginally. The overall macro - sentiment remained positive [2]. - The month - on - month rebound in demand and the decline in inventory are normal at this stage, and there is little possibility of continuous above - seasonal performance in the future. The current market rally is a rebound under the background of relatively balanced raw materials, the influence of "anti - involution" news, and strong macro - sentiment. In the short term, it may be supported by meetings and policies, but approaching the October delivery, the logic may have an adverse impact on the market, and it is difficult to have a trending market. It will mainly fluctuate within a range, showing a pattern of being strong first and then weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - Monthly Steel Data (August 2025): Pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%; cumulative production was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. Crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; cumulative production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. Steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%; cumulative production was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. Steel imports were 0.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; cumulative imports were 3.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [5]. - Weekly Five - Major Steel Products Data (September 19, 2025): The total production of five - major steel products was 8.5546 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Total consumption was 8.5 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%. Total inventory was 15.2 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.95% [6]. Production - related - Steel Production: The report provides seasonal charts of monthly crude steel production and weekly five - major steel products production [8]. - Blast Furnace Production: Seasonal charts of weekly average hot metal production, steel profitability, blast furnace operation rate, and blast furnace capacity utilization rate in China are presented [10]. - Building Materials Production: Seasonal charts of weekly actual production of rebar and wire rod in China are provided [12]. - Coil Production: Seasonal charts of weekly actual production of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates in China are given [13]. - Short - Process Production: Seasonal charts of weekly actual short - process production of rebar and wire rod are provided [16]. - Electric Furnace Profit: Seasonal charts of building steel regional profits and rebar - steel price differentials are presented [18]. - Steel Production Profit: On September 19, 2025, the profit changes of rebar - blast furnace, rebar - electric furnace (valley - rate electricity), rebar - electric furnace (flat - rate electricity), and hot - rolled coil - blast furnace in different regions (East China, North China, and Central China) are provided [20]. Demand - related - Steel Demand: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of five - major steel products and the total trading volume of building steel in the mainstream market in China are presented [22]. - Building Materials Consumption: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of rebar and wire rod in China are provided [24]. - Real Estate High - Frequency Data: The cumulative year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 4.5%. The cumulative transaction area of 100 plots of land decreased by 10% year - on - year [27]. - Cement and Concrete Demand: Cement outbound volume improved marginally, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of 27%. Concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decline of 14% [30]. - Coil Consumption: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of medium - thick plates, cold - rolled coils, and hot - rolled coils in China are provided [31][32][34]. - Steel Exports: Steel exports in August decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period [37]. Inventory - related - Steel Inventory: Seasonal charts of weekly inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio of five - major steel products are presented [38]. - Rebar Inventory: Seasonal charts of rebar inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [40]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory: Seasonal charts of hot - rolled coil inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are given [42]. - Other Steel Inventory: Seasonal charts of weekly inventory of wire rod, medium - thick plate, and cold - rolled coil in China are provided [43][45]. Price - related - Rebar Basis: Rebar basis has been relatively stable recently. The basis for the October contract is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the basis for the January contract is at a neutral level. Currently, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar is the highest for the same period, strongly suppressing the October contract, and the near - month basis may remain relatively high [50]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Basis: The basis of the October contract of hot - rolled coils remained stable with a slight decline this week, and the basis of the January contract was stable [59]. - Rebar Month - Spread: The rebar month - spread moved at a low level this week with limited fluctuations. A large number of rebar warehouse receipts continued to suppress the October contract [64]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread: The 10 - 1 month - spread of hot - rolled coils has strengthened recently. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable, with few warehouse receipts, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is at a neutral level [69]. - Coil - Rebar Spread: Seasonal charts of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread are presented [70]. - Spot Regional Spread: Seasonal charts of rebar regional spreads (Shanghai, Guangzhou - Shanghai) and hot - rolled coil regional spreads (Shanghai, Guangzhou - Shanghai) are provided [73][74][75]. - Spot Product Spread: Seasonal charts of rebar - steel spreads (East China), cold - hot spreads (Shanghai), wire rod - rebar spreads (Shanghai), and medium - thick plate - hot - rolled coil spreads (Shanghai) are presented [78][79]. Others - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Warehouse Receipt Volume: Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil warehouse receipt volume are provided [80]. - Position Volume: Seasonal charts of position volume are presented [81].
钢材周报：供需与预期逻辑交织，行情区间运行-20250922
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-22 06:12