Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Neutral [3] - Soda ash investment view: Bearish [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution logic has a tidal - like trading pattern, but the weak reality persists, and the pattern of oversupply continues. Glass demand has some resilience and may improve in the peak season, with stable supply, large inventory accumulation, and price under pressure. Soda ash has high supply, neutral demand, weakened cost support, large near - month inventory, and limited upside in price. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [37]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. Daily output of national float glass is 16020 tons, with industry start - up rate at 76.01% and capacity utilization at 80.08%, all remaining unchanged from the 11th. There is no cold - repair or ignition of production lines this week, and supply will likely remain stable next week [3]. - Demand: Bullish. The peak season is coming, and demand may improve marginally. This week's production and sales have strengthened [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. Enterprise inventory is 60.908 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 675000 heavy boxes (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. The current price and valuation are neutral [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic has a tidal - like trading pattern, but the weak reality remains, and the overall sentiment is not good [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage. Risk concerns: Daily melting volume [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. This week's soda ash output is 745700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15400 tons (2.02%). Light soda ash output is 328000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11400 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 417700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4000 tons. Due to individual enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and equipment problems, supply has decreased. Recently, there are few device overhauls, and the overall supply shows an increasing trend [4]. - Demand: Neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. However, the terminal demand is difficult to improve, and the negative feedback pressure on price still exists [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. The total manufacturer inventory is 1755600 tons, a decrease of 41900 tons (2.33%) compared with last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash is 749500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13500 tons, and that of heavy soda ash is 1006100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28400 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory has increased by 356800 tons (25.51%). Recently, the overall inventory has been decreasing, and the inventory of individual enterprises has decreased due to accelerated shipments [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. The valuation is neutral [4]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, but the overall impact is limited, and the pattern of high short - term supply is difficult to reverse [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage. Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes Glass - Price: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1216 (+36), and the Shahe spot price was 1084 (+12) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1318 (+28), and the Shahe spot price was 1216 (+19) [11]. Spread/Basis - Soda ash: The 01 - 05 spread and the basis fluctuated. - Glass: The 01 - 05 spread and the basis fluctuated [22]. Part Three: Supply - and - Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Production is stable. The daily output of national float glass is 16020 tons, with industry start - up rate at 76.01% and capacity utilization at 80.08%, all remaining unchanged from the 11th. There is no cold - repair or ignition of production lines this week, and supply will likely remain stable next week. The production profit of glass fluctuates. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 164.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.29 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas as fuel is 94.03 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.37 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke as fuel is 41.37 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.43 yuan/ton [25]. Glass Demand - The orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises have improved. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 10.5 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The completion data of the real - estate mid - and - back end is poor. From January to August, the housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises is 6431.09 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new construction area is 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area is 276.94 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0%. The inventory is decreasing [30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply is at a high level. This week's soda ash output is 745700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15400 tons (2.02%). Light soda ash output is 328000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11400 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 417700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4000 tons. Due to individual enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and equipment problems, supply has decreased. Recently, there are few device overhauls, and the overall supply shows an increasing trend. The profit of soda ash plants fluctuates. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process is - 36.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - soda process is - 70.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16 yuan/ton [33]. Soda Ash Demand - The overall demand is neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. However, the terminal demand is not good, and the negative feedback pressure on price still exists. The inventory is decreasing [34].
玻璃纯碱（FG、SA）：基本面延续承压，碱玻向上阻力大
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-22 06:21