Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Reporting Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut has been implemented, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market anticipates a lower end - point for this round of rate cuts, leading to a strong - side oscillation in precious metal prices. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the US August PCE data to be released on Friday [7][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Gold: Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut was implemented, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market anticipates a lower end - point for this round of rate cuts, and the price of US gold continued to oscillate strongly. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3,719 per ounce, up 1.1% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3,760, and the lower support level is $3,640 [7]. - Silver: Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut was implemented, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market anticipates a lower end - point for this round of rate cuts, and the price of US silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 1.6%, closing at $43.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $42, and the upper resistance level is $45 [10]. 3.2 Weekly View - The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut was implemented, and the market anticipates a lower end - point for this round of rate cuts, causing precious metal prices to oscillate strongly. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the total non - farm payrolls for March. The US August PPI data was lower than expected, and the dot - plot of the FOMC meeting shows two more rate cuts. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries have been finalized, with the tariff increase generally lower than market expectations, leading to increased optimism about a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be persistent. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US August PCE data to be released on Friday [12]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - to - dollar and pound - to - dollar exchange rates, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), Fed's balance sheet size and its weekly changes, gold - to - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends, but no specific analysis is provided [16][18][21]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - US August Retail Sales MoM: The announced value was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.5% [26]. - US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ended September 13: The announced value was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and the previous value of 263,000 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Meeting in September: The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut this year after a cut in December last year. The dot - plot indicates two more rate cuts this year, generally in line with expectations. The statement emphasizes the downward risk of employment compared to the July meeting. Powell believes that tariffs have a one - time impact on core commodity inflation, and the probability of persistently high inflation is low. - Economic Forecast Adjustment: The Fed slightly raised the economic growth forecasts for 2025 - 2027, with increases of 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively compared to the June forecasts, reaching 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%. It maintained the forecast of an annual unemployment rate of 4.5% this year and slightly lowered the unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4% and 4.3%. The Fed is more optimistic about the economic growth outlook and believes that the risks in the job market are generally controllable [27]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 17,077.21 kg to 1,227,454.08 kg this week, and SHFE inventory increased by 4,479 kg to 57,429 kg [14]. - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 105,128.15 kg to 16,299,580.27 kg this week, and SHFE inventory decreased by 87,126 kg to 1,159,443 kg [14]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - Gold: As of September 16, the CFTC speculative fund net long position was 256,079 contracts, an increase of 728 contracts from last week [14][34]. - Silver: As of September 16, the CFTC speculative fund net long position was 48,778 contracts, a decrease of 2,111 contracts from last week [14][34]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - Tuesday (September 23), 21:45: US September SPGI Manufacturing PMI Flash - Thursday (September 25), 20:30: US Q2 Real GDP Annualized QoQ Final Value - Friday (September 26), 20:30: US August PCE Price Index YoY [36] Strategy Suggestion - Trade cautiously and within a range. Refer to the operating range of 820 - 855 for the SHFE gold December contract and 9,800 - 10,500 for the SHFE silver December contract [14].
长江期货贵金属周报：降息落地，价格延续震荡-20250922
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-22 06:25