机构行为与点位观察

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the bond market was relatively stable, with interest rates first declining and then rising. Market sentiment improved in the first half of the week as the market speculated on the central bank restarting treasury bond trading, leading to a decline in interest rates and credit bond yields. In the second half of the week, influenced by factors such as China - US negotiations, there was a slight upward movement. Credit spreads fluctuated slightly overall, with long - term credit spreads rising [2]. - Since the market adjustment began in July, institutional behavior has changed. Large banks have shifted from net selling to net buying of interest - rate bonds, mainly focusing on varieties with a maturity of less than 5 years. Funds and securities firms have sold more long - term interest - rate bonds, with relatively scattered buyers. For credit bonds, the net buying of wealth management products, insurance, and other product categories has been relatively stable. State - owned banks' purchase of short - term interest - rate bonds also contributes to short - end stability. The trading volume of long - term credit bonds has significantly decreased recently. It is speculated that the inflection point of the continuous upward trend of long - term credit bond yields is approaching [3]. - Compared with the year - to - date low in early July, the yields of medium - and long - term credit bonds with a maturity of 4 years and above have increased significantly. Compared with the high point in March, the yields of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years have declined by more than 10bp, and the yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds are slightly higher than the year - to - date high. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, there is limited room for a significant reduction in credit bond spreads, but the stability of the short end is highly certain [4]. - Considering the current low funding rates, weak fundamentals, and the strong volatility - resistance ability of short - term bonds, short - term bonds with a maturity of around 2 years have good investment value. Currently, the price - ratio of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - Yong Bonds) to medium - term notes has reverted to the mean, reducing their trading value. Their future performance mainly depends on interest - rate trends. If interest rates decline, there is still room for further decline. The trading volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds has decreased significantly, and the yields of some varieties have exceeded the year - to - date high, making them suitable for allocation. However, for trading - oriented institutions, especially those with less stable liability ends, the trading opportunities in the fourth quarter are limited, and it is advisable to wait appropriately. For allocation - oriented institutions, they can gradually start allocating [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Institutional Behavior and Point Observation 3.1.1 What are the characteristics of institutional behavior? - Since July, large banks have increased their net buying of interest - rate bonds, while funds and securities firms have increased their net selling. Large banks are more inclined to buy short - term interest - rate bonds rather than long - term ones. There is a mismatch in the maturity between the purchasing willingness of large banks and the selling willingness of funds and securities firms, which will affect the market trend. For credit bonds, the overall behavior is relatively stable. The net buying of insurance, wealth management products, and other product categories is relatively stable, while the selling of securities firms, city commercial banks, and joint - stock commercial banks is also relatively stable. Large banks' selling has decreased since July. The net buying of rural commercial banks in the secondary market of credit bonds has remained at a good level, but the overall volume is limited. Since the bond market adjustment in July, funds' demand for long - term credit bonds has weakened significantly, and they have continuously sold long - term credit bonds. Insurance's net buying of long - term credit bonds has declined to a relatively low level in recent weeks [10][14][18]. 3.1.2 Credit bond point observation - Compared with the year - to - date high on March 18, the current credit bond yields are still lower. Yields of bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years are about 30bp lower, those with a maturity of 3 - 5 years are about 20bp lower, and those with a maturity of more than 5 years are only about 5bp lower. Credit spreads are significantly lower than the high point in March, with spreads of bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years being about 20bp lower. Compared with the low point on July 7, the short - end adjustment of bonds with a maturity of 2 years and below is relatively small, while the adjustment of bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years is particularly large. The weak fundamentals and relatively loose funding rates provide a stable foundation for the short end. The relatively stable purchasing power of important buyers of credit bonds, such as insurance and wealth management products, and large banks' preference for short - term interest - rate bonds also indirectly support credit bonds [22][26][30]. 3.1.3 Investment thinking and suggestions for the portfolio - From the perspectives of the funding situation, institutional behavior, and anti - decline ability, appropriate credit risk - taking in short - term credit bonds is still worthy of attention. Currently, the volume of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years, a valuation of more than 2.1%, and an implicit rating of AA(2) and above exceeds 1 trillion yuan. The price - ratio of Two - Yong Bonds to medium - term notes has reverted to around 0, reducing their trading value. Their future performance depends on interest - rate trends. The yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds are close to the year - to - date high, and the trading volume has dropped to a low point. They have allocation value, and allocation - oriented institutions can gradually allocate [32][34][37]. 3.2 What to buy in credit? 3.2.1 It is recommended to focus on high - grade Two - Yong Bonds - This week, the price - ratio of AAA Two - Yong Bonds to medium - term notes has declined significantly. The price - ratio of 5 - year AAA - rated Tier 2 capital bonds to 5 - year AAA medium - term notes has dropped by more than 5bp this week. The price - ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes has declined significantly and is close to the year - to - date low, with relatively low cost - effectiveness. The price - ratio of long - term weak - quality urban investment bonds to medium - term notes has increased recently and is currently positive [41][43]. 3.2.2 Focus on high - coupon assets with a maturity of around 2 years - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation of more than 2.2% is 38.6%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 26.1%, and that of Two - Yong Bonds is 34.7%. Bonds with a maturity of around 2 years and a valuation of more than 2.2% have good value. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on bonds with a maturity of around 2 years issued by entities such as Xi'an High - tech Holdings Co., Ltd., Henan Airport Group Investment Co., Ltd., and Zhuhai Huafa Group Co., Ltd. For industrial bonds, it is recommended to focus on 2 - year bonds of important local state - owned real - estate enterprises and 2 - year or less bonds of non - real - estate industrial entities [45][47][49]. 3.3 Market Review: Yields Fluctuated 3.3.1 How was the market performance? - This week, credit bond yields fluctuated, with long - term yields generally rising and some bonds with a maturity of 7 years and above adjusting by more than 3bp, while short - term Two - Yong Bonds generally declined. Credit spreads showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads decreasing significantly, and spreads of ultra - short - term bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year generally decreasing by more than 4bp. From a daily perspective, yields fluctuated upward this week, showing a V - shaped trend. Credit spreads also showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads decreasing on Mondays and Fridays and long - term spreads widening significantly on Tuesdays and Wednesdays [51][55][56]. 3.3.2 Insurance's allocation strength declined, and funds turned to net buying - The scale of insurance companies' credit bond allocation decreased compared with the previous week. This week, the net buying scale of insurance was 8.092 billion yuan, a 36.8% decrease from the previous week. The net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years was 2.204 billion yuan, with a slight increase in the增持 strength. Funds turned to net buying. This week, funds net - bought 6.331 billion yuan of credit bonds, mainly focusing on bonds with a maturity of 1 - 5 years, with an增持 scale of 11.869 billion yuan. However, they still continued to net - sell ultra - long - term bonds, selling 2.938 billion yuan this week. The scale of wealth management products remained basically the same as last week. As of September 14, the scale of bank wealth management products was 31.07 trillion yuan. The allocation strength of wealth management products was stable, and the allocation strength of other product categories increased slightly. This week, the增持 scale of wealth management products in credit bonds was 20.32 billion yuan, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week. The net buying scale of other products was 13.386 billion yuan, a 20.7% increase from the previous week [58][60][63]. 3.3.3 Transaction proportion: The proportion of transactions within 1 year remains low - The proportion of medium - and short - term transactions (within 3 years) of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds remains relatively high, and the proportion of transactions of Two - Yong Bonds with a maturity of 3 - 5 years is still not low, indicating that general credit bonds are shortening their duration, and Two - Yong Bonds still have strong trading characteristics [67].