Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are expected to improve, and the price is likely to continue its low-level rebound. The cost support has improved due to the firm performance of calcium carbide prices, and the supply pressure is expected to ease as more maintenance plans are scheduled for October. Although exports are affected by policies, the growth rate remains strong. The inventory structure of the industrial chain is differentiated, and the spot price is firm. With the strengthening of the basis, the risk-free arbitrage space in the industry has disappeared, and the hedging pressure has decreased [4]. Summary of Each Section PVC Market Review - This week, PVC fluctuated and rose. It opened higher on Monday at 4883 (up 12 points or 0.24% from last week's close), fell slightly to the daily low of 4863, and then rose strongly. It reached a new monthly high of 4994 on Wednesday morning before falling slightly, and finally closed at 4950 (up 74 points or 1.48% from last week's close). The weekly range was between 4863 and 4994, with an amplitude of 131 points [8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 4950 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 74 yuan). The main position of PVC was 1.13 million lots, and the market sentiment improved, leading to a rebound with reduced positions [11]. - As of Friday, the PVC basis in Changzhou was -170 yuan/ton, and both the futures and spot prices strengthened slightly. The PVC warehouse receipts were 110,000 lots (weekly decrease of 10,000 lots) [13]. - As of Friday, the V1 - 5 spread was -303 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the V3 - 5 spread was -226 yuan/ton (increase of 10 yuan) [16]. - This week, the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 223 yuan/ton (decrease of 70 yuan) [19]. Supply - The intensity of device maintenance increased, and the output declined from a high level. This week, the PVC output was 460,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. The cumulative output from week 1 to 38 increased by 4.3% year - on - year [22]. - Next week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC is expected to be 78%, higher than the current level. The maintenance of Gansu Jinchuan and Zhongtai Shengxiong plants will end, and there are no new enterprises joining the maintenance, so the overall supply is expected to increase [22]. Real Estate - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were -19.5%, -9.3%, -17.0%, and -4.7% respectively, with the decline rates expanding. In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes were -19.8%, -28.6%, -21.3%, and -11.0% respectively, and the decline rate of sales area has been expanding for 5 consecutive months. In August 2025, the year - on - year change of the new commercial housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities was -2.95% [25]. - This week, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.2 million square meters [28]. Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate was 49%, increasing for 3 consecutive weeks and exceeding the level of the same period last year. Among them, the operating rate of pipes has increased significantly in the past two weeks [30]. Exports - From January to August 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.57 million tons (an increase of 910,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55%. In August 2025, the export volume was 28,400 tons (including 11,000 tons to India) [33]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 245,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%). In July 2025, the export volume of PVC flooring was 35,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%). (Note: Each ton of PVC flooring consumes about 0.3 tons of PVC powder) [36]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the inventory of PVC enterprises was 310,000 tons (a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week), with inventory reduction for 2 consecutive weeks. The pre - sales volume of upstream enterprises was 756,000 tons (an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous week), at a high level in the same period. The PVC price fluctuated slightly this week, and manufacturers sold goods with price support and delivered some export orders. It is expected that the in - stock inventory of PVC enterprises will decrease slightly next week [39]. - As of Thursday this week, the small - sample social inventory of PVC was 530,000 tons (an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week), and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (an increase of 19,000 tons from the previous week), with inventory accumulation for 13 consecutive weeks and a total inventory accumulation of 365,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was -502 yuan/ton (a decrease of 81 yuan from the previous week), with profit contraction for 3 consecutive weeks [44]. - This week, the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was -672 yuan/ton, with profit contraction for 6 consecutive weeks [47].
PVC周报：上游开工下滑，低位反弹-20250922
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-22 06:31