镍与不锈钢日评：低位震荡-20250922

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250922: Low-level Fluctuation [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On September 19, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened low and moved high, with the LME nickel falling 0.01%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium narrowed. With a weak fundamental situation and inventory pressure after the Fed's interest rate cut, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [doc id not provided]. - Stainless Steel: On September 19, the stainless steel main contract fluctuated at a low level, and the spot market trading was weak, with the basis premium narrowing. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [doc id not provided]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - Futures Prices: For Shanghai nickel futures on September 19, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 121,500 yuan/ton, 121,920 yuan/ton, 121,340 yuan/ton, and 122,160 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 560 yuan, 620 yuan, 580 yuan, and 680 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - Volumes and Positions: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel active contract was 62,653 lots (-18,959), and the open interest was 50,421 lots (-4,623) [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, the LME inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [doc id not provided]. - LME Data: The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,320 US dollars, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,270 US dollars, and the trading volume was - 1,108 lots [2]. Stainless Steel Market - Futures Prices: The closing prices of the stainless steel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on September 19 were 12,725 yuan/ton, 12,860 yuan/ton, 12,910 yuan/ton, and 12,980 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 yuan, - 15 yuan, - 15 yuan, and - 10 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - Volumes and Positions: The trading volume of the stainless steel active contract was 116,925 lots (-58,909), and the open interest was 131,185 lots (-1,043) [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 593,400 tons (-2,900) [doc id not provided]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Analysis Nickel - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventory accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, with increased domestic production in September and increased production in Indonesia, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profitability expanded [doc id not provided]. - Demand: Ternary production decreased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [doc id not provided]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Stainless - steel production increased in September [doc id not provided]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [doc id not provided]. Group 5: Cost Analysis - For stainless steel, the price of high - nickel pig iron remained flat, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [doc id not provided]. Group 6: Industry News - LME is making important adjustments to its Class 5 membership system to simplify and strengthen the brand registration process. From February 20, 2026, only approved brand registration service providers will be eligible to submit metal brand registration applications to INE, making the process for metal producers to become LME - recognized delivery brands more transparent and efficient. Class 1 to Class 4 members can still assist with brand applications as usual, and the current process remains unchanged [doc id not provided].