纸浆:供需基本面略有改善,浆价小幅反弹
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-22 06:50
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of pulp have slightly improved, and the pulp price has rebounded slightly. The pulp futures price of contract 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4920 - 5180 this week [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. The prices of coniferous pulp remained stable, while the prices of broad - leaf pulp increased slightly. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp remained unchanged compared to the previous week [11][14] - Pulp Futures: The main pulp futures contract SP2511 showed a slight up - and - down oscillation and rebounded last week, closing at 5018 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (or + 0.56%) [15] - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis: The basis discount of coniferous wood pulp to the closing price of the main futures contract was 632 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing by 28 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [19] - Log Futures: The main log futures contract 2511 showed a slight oscillatory rebound last week, closing at 805.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 7.0 yuan/cubic meter (or + 0.88%) [20] 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Weekly Production: Last week, the pulp production was 51.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons (or + 7.69%). The production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased, and it is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 23.2 tons and that of chemimechanical pulp will be about 22.0 tons this week [22] - Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rates of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp both increased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will not change much next week [25] - Monthly Production: In August 2025, the domestic pulp production increased slightly, with wood pulp production rising and non - wood pulp production remaining flat [27] - Monthly Capacity Utilization: In August 2025, the capacity utilization rates of chemimechanical pulp and broad - leaf pulp both decreased [32] - Monthly Production Profit: In August 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp increased month - on - month, and the loss of chemimechanical pulp decreased [36] - Pulp Imports: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume increased year - on - year [37] 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of household paper decreased slightly, while those of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard increased. It is expected that the production of household paper will be about 27.9 tons, offset paper about 20.6 tons, coated paper about 8.5 tons, and white cardboard about 36.0 tons this week [39][43][46][47] - Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit: The gross profit of household paper decreased, while that of white cardboard increased slightly. The loss of offset paper decreased slightly, and the gross profit of coated paper increased [49][53] - Domestic Pulp Consumption: In August 2025, the actual pulp consumption increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54] - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price: The prices of household paper and cultural paper remained stable, the price of whiteboard paper increased slightly, and the price of white cardboard remained basically stable [57][60] 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp is increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Tianjin Port has all increased [61][63] - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: The pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous week, and the warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 0.27% [65]