煤焦周度报告20250922：下游节前备货启动，双焦预计偏强运行-20250922

Report Title - Coal Coke Weekly Report 20250922 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The double - coking coal (coke and coking coal) is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term. Although the supply side of coal mines has recovered, there are still disturbances. High hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises provide strong support for raw material demand. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in coking coal [4][9] Summary by Directory 1. Coke Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - The futures price soared last week and is expected to remain strong before the holiday. The second - round spot price cut has been implemented and is currently stable. The freight for coke transportation remained stable last week [7][10][17] 1.2 Supply - The impact of coking production restrictions in Tangshan is limited, and the coke supply remains high and stable. As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises nationwide was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 66.72 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 86.03%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 46.65 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons [26][28][33] 1.3 Demand - The hot metal production increased slightly, and downstream enterprises started pre - holiday restocking. Speculative sentiment improved slightly, export profit changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials in the spot market was lower than the same period in previous years. As of September 19, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.98%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.47 tons; the steel mill profit rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [34][36][39] 1.4 Inventory - Downstream enterprises restocked while upstream enterprises reduced inventory, and the total inventory increased. As of September 19, the total coke inventory increased by 8.94 tons to 9.1518 million tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 1.01 tons to 2.041 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 1.43 tons to 664,100 tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills increased by 11.38 tons to 6.4467 million tons [40][42][45] 1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the coke futures profit weakened slightly. The profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan from the previous week. The futures profit of coke 01 decreased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 136.90 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [51][53] 1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread continued to weaken. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 61.3 to - 157.16 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21 to - 102 [55][57] 2. Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - The futures price soared last week and is expected to remain strong before the holiday. The spot price is running strongly. Some coking coal prices in different regions showed an upward trend last week [60][63] 2.2 Supply - The supply from production areas continued to recover, the output of coal washing plants increased, and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the 288 port remained high. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 72.64 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 7.54%. As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.44%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average output of clean coal was 268,000 tons, an increase of 119,000 tons [66][72][74] 2.3 Inventory - Independent coking enterprises increased inventory while coal mines reduced inventory, and the total inventory increased. As of September 19, the total coking coal inventory increased by 666,000 tons to 25.501 million tons. Among them, the inventory of mining enterprises decreased by 217,300 tons to 2.3279 million tons; the port inventory increased by 110,800 tons to 2.8219 million tons; the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 237,700 tons to 3.0437 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 568,700 tons to 9.4041 million tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 33,900 tons to 7.9034 million tons [75][77][80] 2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened. The basis of coking coal 01 decreased by 87.5 to - 101 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21 to - 102 [99][101]