PTA：缺乏基本面支撑，PTA维持区间震荡，MEG：积弱难返，乙二醇偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA lacks fundamental support and is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply - demand balance sheet may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, but low processing fees, increased maintenance plans, and cost - side support will keep it in this pattern [1][6]. - MEG is in a weak state and is expected to run weakly in the short term. Although there is a strong expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low inventory at the main port provides obvious support below [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Market Review: Due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, international crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, terminal demand remained sluggish, and the postponement of the commissioning time of new downstream PTA plants led to a significant decline in PX prices at the end of the session. As of September 19, the closing price of Asian PX was $815.67 per ton CFR China, down $15.66 per ton from September 12 [17]. - Capacity Utilization: The restart of two 160 - million - ton PX units of Fujian Fuhai Chuang and the maintenance of a 70 - million - ton unit of Dalian Fujia led to a narrow increase in the average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX to 85.51%, a 0.88% increase from the previous week [20]. - PX - Naphtha Price Spread: As of September 19, the PX - naphtha price spread was $218.9 per ton, down $13.91 per ton from September 12. Due to the lack of improvement in terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, the PX - naphtha price spread continued to decline [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: This week, PTA device operation was stable, but the restart of Fuhai Chuang was postponed. Terminal orders were average during the traditional peak season, and demand was tepid. With low processing fees, some enterprises added maintenance plans, and PTA mainly oscillated at a low level. As of September 19, the spot price of PTA was 4,555 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [24]. - Capacity Utilization: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased to 77.29%, a 2.34% increase from the previous week. In September, with the planned restart of some units, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach around 78% [28][31]. - Processing Fees: With the upcoming restart of large - scale East China plants, increased domestic supply, and tepid terminal performance during the traditional peak season, PTA processing fees have been weakening. In the short term, although there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low valuation limits the further downward space, and processing fees are expected to continue the weak pattern [32]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In September, with the restart of maintenance units and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to shift from de - stocking to a loose balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: Despite the decline in the main port inventory, the market was generally worried about supply - side pressure. Although there were small rebounds during the week, the confidence to chase the rise was insufficient, and the MEG market remained weak at the weekend. As of September 19, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,352 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,470 yuan per ton [39]. - Capacity Utilization: The total capacity utilization rate of MEG was 67.04%, a 0.48% increase from the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased by 0.19%, and that of coal - based MEG increased by 1.56%. In September, with the restart of some domestic units and the end of the maintenance season, the overall MEG output is expected to continue to rise [46]. - Inventory: As of September 25, the total expected arrival volume of MEG in East China was 88,100 tons. As of September 18, the total MEG inventory in the main East China ports was 383,700 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from September 15 and an increase of 20,500 tons from September 11 [47][49]. - Profit: Due to the expected increase in supply and the rise in raw material prices, the profits of all MEG production processes declined this week. As of September 19, the profit of naphtha - based MEG was - $115.99 per ton, down $13.59 per ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based MEG was - 141.07 yuan per ton, down 87.68 yuan per ton from the previous week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Polyester Production: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.89%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week. With the restart of some previously maintained units and the planned commissioning of new units next week, domestic polyester production is expected to increase slightly [56]. - Capacity Utilization Expectation: In August, polyester production and sales were relatively good, and new plants were commissioned, resulting in a narrow fluctuation in the polyester operating rate. In September, with the expectation of the traditional peak season, the planned restart of some previously reduced - production and maintained units, and the expected commissioning of multiple new plants, the monthly polyester load is expected to increase [59]. - Capacity Utilization of Sub - Products: This week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.54%, a 0.11% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.01%, a 0.19% increase from the previous week; and the capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 83.31%, a 1.32% increase from the previous week [62]. - Inventory: Due to cautious downstream procurement and weak production and sales, factory finished - product inventories increased slightly this week [63]. - Cash Flow: With the decrease in polymerization costs, polyester manufacturers focused on sales, and the average weekly price decreased, compressing cash flow. However, the cash flow of DTY was repaired [66]. - Weaving Industry: As of September 18, the operating load of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.19%, a 0.23% decrease from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 14.42 days, a decrease of 0.13 days from the previous week. The current orders are mainly for autumn and winter cold - proof fabrics, and the industry demand has not improved substantially [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - Cost Side: International crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, due to weak terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, PX prices declined significantly at the end of the session [73]. - Supply Side: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased, and the total capacity utilization rate of MEG also increased slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based units [73]. - Demand Side: The overall supply of polyester fluctuated slightly this week, and the operating load and order days of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [73]. - Inventory: PTA supply is expected to increase, and the near - term supply - demand remains tight, while the long - term inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The MEG inventory at the main East China ports decreased compared with September 15 but increased compared with September 11 [73].