Soochow Securities·2025-09-22 06:48Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. is expected to experience a temperature drop, leading to reduced cooling demand, while European storage is progressing and domestic demand is slowly recovering, resulting in relatively stable gas prices across regions [1][10] - It emphasizes the ongoing price adjustments in the domestic market, with a focus on the gradual implementation of pricing reforms that enhance profitability for city gas companies [35] Price Tracking - As of September 19, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas markets are as follows: U.S. HH -0.2%, European TTF -0.7%, East Asia JKM +0.1%, China LNG ex-factory -0.8%, and China LNG CIF +0.7%, with prices at 0.7, 2.8, 2.9, 2.7, and 2.9 CNY/m³ respectively [5][10] - The average total supply of natural gas in the U.S. decreased by 0.5% week-on-week to 1,118 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 1.1% to 985 billion cubic feet per day [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the average natural gas consumption in China for the first seven months of 2025 increased by 0.3% year-on-year to 246.1 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions in 2024 affecting heating demand [26] - In Europe, natural gas consumption for the first half of 2025 was 240.8 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [17] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 CNY/m³, indicating a trend towards improved profitability for city gas companies [35] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing reforms, highlighting key companies such as New Hope Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [50] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Hope Holdings [50]