贵金属日评：多国财政扩张和地缘政治风险支撑贵金属价格-20250922

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market expects the Fed to cut rates several times in Oct/Dec 2025 and Mar/Jun/Dec 2026, with the expected timing of rate cuts in 2026 postponed compared to last week However, considering Trump's continuous pressure on Fed officials, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, the unresolved geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Gold Futures: The closing price was 826.00 yuan/g on 2025-09-22, with a change of 1.47 yuan compared to the previous day and -2.03 yuan compared to last week The trading volume was 46,932.00, and the open interest was 208,096.00 The inventory (in ten grams) was 57,429.00 [1] - Spot Shanghai Gold T+D: The closing price was 824.53 yuan/g on 2025-09-22, with a change of -2.03 yuan compared to the previous day and 1.47 yuan compared to last week The trading volume was 49,462.00, and the open interest was 262.00 [1] - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 41.20 dollars compared to the previous day and 46.00 dollars compared to last week The trading volume was 207,139.00, and the open interest was 387,119.00 The inventory (in troy ounces) was 39,463,535.53 [1] - London Gold Spot: The price was 3,643.70 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 33.60 dollars compared to the previous day and 19.45 dollars compared to last week [1] - Shanghai Silver Futures: The closing price was 9,971.00 yuan/ten grams on 2025-09-22, with a change of 136.00 yuan compared to the previous day and -46.00 yuan compared to last week The trading volume was 356,647.00, and the open interest was 433,982.00 The inventory (in ten grams) was 1,159,443.00 [1] - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 43.37 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 1.27 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.30 dollars compared to last week The trading volume was 16,412.00, and the open interest was 131,247.00 The inventory (in troy ounces) was 524,043,283.40 [1] - London Silver Spot: The price was 42.24 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 0.38 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.16 dollars compared to last week [1] Important Information - The US Senate rejected short-term spending bills from both parties, and Trump threatened that the US government is likely to shut down on Oct 1st [1] - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, with two unexpected dissenting votes It started to reduce its ETF holdings, selling 330 billion yen worth of ETFs annually, causing the Japanese stock market to decline [1] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to mainly establish long positions when prices fall For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850 For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1]