Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-09-22): Peak Season Features Emerge, Steel Prices Fluctuate and Rise [1] Report Main Viewpoints Steel - Price: Spot prices stop falling and rebound, while the futures market fluctuates upward [4]. - Supply: Blast furnace production rises slightly, while electric furnace production continues to decline [4]. - Inventory: Building material inventory starts to decline, and plate inventory decreases slightly [4]. - Demand: The recovery of building material demand is slow, while the apparent demand for plates accumulates slightly [4]. - Profit: Blast furnace profits are slightly repaired, and electric furnace losses narrow [4]. - Basis: The basis of the 01 rebar contract expands significantly and is expected to continue expanding [4]. - Summary: The supply - demand structure of steel begins to improve, with peak - season features becoming more obvious. The futures market has high expectations for policies. Pay attention to the recovery speed and sustainability of demand. For strategies, stay on the sidelines for single - sided steel trading and consider shorting the rebar - ore ratio [4]. Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rise slightly, and the futures market fluctuates upward [4]. - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil increase, while arrivals decline month - on - month [4]. - Demand: Blast furnace production increases, and demand recovers month - on - month [4]. - Inventory: Port inventory decreases slightly, while downstream total inventory accumulates [4]. - Shipping: Shipping costs both rise [4]. - Spread: The 1 - 5 spread remains basically flat, and the 01 discount narrows slightly [4]. - Summary: Last week, the supply of iron ore tightened month - on - month, and demand continued to recover. The supply - demand structure continued to improve. In the short term, the market may still trade on the pre - National Day stockpiling, and ore prices may maintain a current volatile and upward trend. Aggressive investors can continue to look for short - term long - buying opportunities on pullbacks [4]. Market Conditions and Strategies Capital Sentiment and Technical Analysis - For rebar, positions continue to increase, trading volume expands, and the futures market shows a volatile and rising trend, forming a rounded bottom structure. However, it may face resistance around 3200. For iron ore, capital continues to flow in, the price breaks through effectively, and is expected to continue rising [5]. Strategy Recommendations - Hold long positions in iron ore on a single - sided basis. - Continue to consider shorting rebar and going long on iron ore for arbitrage. - For industrial clients in the spot - futures market, hold spot goods and establish a small number of short positions on the futures market when the price rebounds to form a positive arbitrage position. During the peak season, actively sell goods and try to reduce inventory levels [7]. Steel Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar prices fluctuated upward, with the 01 contract rising 45 to 3172. Spot prices also increased, with rebar in East China reported at 3260 yuan/ton, up 40 week - on - week [13]. Supply - Blast Furnace: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in China is 83.98%, up 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 5.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points week - on - week and 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons week - on - week and 17.19 tons year - on - year [16]. - Electric Furnace: The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China is 54.35%, down 0.91 percentage points week - on - week and up 14.68 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate is 70.63%, down 1.29 percentage points week - on - week and up 9.59 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - Building Materials and Plates: Rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons last week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.35 tons. It is expected that rebar production will not decline significantly in the future, and hot - rolled coil production may slightly decline [27]. Demand - Building Materials: From September 4th to 10th, the clinker kiln line capacity utilization rate of 274 cement plants was 55.69%, up 14.96 percentage points week - on - week and 8.20 percentage points year - on - year. Infrastructure demand is continuously released, housing construction projects are accelerating the resumption of work, and the demand for rebar is gradually increasing. Speculative demand is also expected to recover [30]. - Plates: The downstream industries of hot - rolled coils have gradually started procurement plans. The current orders on hand of steel mills can still last for about 15 days, and rigid demand still supports hot - rolled coil consumption [34]. Profit - The profitability rate of steel mills is 58.87%, down 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and up 48.91 percentage points year - on - year. The profits of steel mills in Tangshan and East China have both recovered by about 30. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace building material steel mills is - 132 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit is - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. Inventory - Building Materials: The total inventory of five major steel products last week was 1519.74 tons, up 5.13 tons week - on - week. Building material inventory decreased by 2.78 tons, with rebar mill inventory decreasing by 1.56 tons and social inventory decreasing by 2.02 tons [43]. - Plates: Plate inventory increased by 3.24 tons week - on - week, with mill inventory increasing by 0.42 tons and social inventory increasing by 4.25 tons [46]. Basis - The basis of the rebar 01 contract rose 25 to 108, and the basis of the hot - rolled coil rose 20 to 66. Currently, the bases of both are at a relatively low level. Consider the opportunity of the rebar basis expanding [50]. Inter - period Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar is - 60, with the contango deepening by 2 compared to last week. The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil is - 10, down 6. In the short term, the far - month expectation of rebar is still strong, and the contango is difficult to reverse [54]. Inter - commodity Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market narrowed by 35 to 202, and the spot spread decreased by 40 to 160. It is recommended to do long - short trading on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and go long when it is below 200 [57]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, the iron ore futures market fluctuated narrowly, with prices rising slightly. The 01 contract rose 8 to 807.5. The spot price was flat, with PB fines at Rizhao Port down 1 to 792 yuan/ton [63]. Supply - Global Shipment: The global iron ore shipment volume is 3573.1 tons, up 817 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in September is 3164.65 tons, down 113 tons month - on - month and 98 tons year - on - year [66]. - Arrival: The arrival volume of 47 ports is 2392.3 tons, down 181 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in September is 2482.6 tons, down 118 tons month - on - month and 36 tons year - on - year [72]. Demand - Rigid Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 241.02 tons/day, up 0.47 tons/day week - on - week [75]. - Speculative Demand: The daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports is 109 tons/day, up 5.5 tons week - on - week [79]. Inventory - Port Inventory: As of September 19th, the inventory of 47 ports decreased by 74 tons, lower than the same period last year [82]. - Downstream Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese steel mills is 9309.43 tons, up 316.38 tons week - on - week. The daily consumption of imported ore is 297.45 tons, up 0.80 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.3 days, up 0.98 days week - on - week [85]. Shipping - The shipping price from Australia to Qingdao is 10.94 US dollars/ton, up 0.63 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to Qingdao is 24.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.67 US dollars week - on - week [88]. Spread - The 01 contract basis is 17, narrowing by 2 week - on - week. The 1 - 5 spread is 21.5, narrowing by 0.5 week - on - week [91].
旺季特征显现，钢价震荡上涨
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-22 06:59