有色金属周报：美联储降息靴子落地，有色板块先扬后抑-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the non - super - dovish stance led to a short - term correction in the non - ferrous sector due to profit - taking. The call between Chinese and US leaders improved market sentiment, which is expected to boost commodity prices. The non - ferrous metal market is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, raw materials, smelting, demand, and inventory, and different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [9][91][192]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. It shows their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6][7]. 2. Copper (CU) - Macro Factors: Neutral to bullish. Positive factors include the planned meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the Fed's interest rate cut, while negative factors are the under - expected Chinese economic data in August [9]. - Raw Material End: Neutral to bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore rebounded slightly, and the port inventory increased, but the tight supply pattern continued [51]. - Smelting End: Neutral to bullish. The decline in sulfuric acid prices led to an increase in the losses of smelters using spot copper ore and a narrowing of the profits of those using long - term contract copper ore. The production of electrolytic copper in September may decline significantly [51]. - Demand End: Neutral. The operating rate of refined copper rods increased slightly, and the operating rate of copper products rebounded slightly with the arrival of the peak season [10]. - Inventory: Bearish. Global copper inventories increased [77]. - Investment Viewpoint: Oscillating to bullish. Although the Fed's interest rate cut caused some bulls to leave the market, the overseas easing cycle and the improvement in domestic downstream demand are expected to drive copper prices to stabilize and rise [9]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Short - term strong operation; Arbitrage: Long domestic and short overseas [9]. 3. Zinc (ZN) - Macro Factors: Neutral to bullish. The Fed's interest rate cut and the decline in the US initial jobless claims are positive for the non - ferrous sector, while the Bank of Japan's ETF reduction has a certain impact [91]. - Raw Material End: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remained stable, and the import processing fee index increased significantly. The supply of domestic ores is stable, and the import processing fee is expected to continue to rise [91]. - Smelting End: Neutral. The production in August was better than expected, but the production in September is expected to decline due to new smelter maintenance plans [91]. - Demand End: Neutral. The peak season is approaching, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and the orders are not significantly improved [91]. - Inventory: Bearish. The social inventory continued to increase, and the differentiation between domestic and overseas inventories deepened, increasing the global visible inventory [91]. - Investment Viewpoint: Oscillating. The short - term focus is on the fundamentals, and the increase in inventory and the lackluster peak season put pressure on zinc prices. Attention should be paid to the opening of the "export window" [91]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy low and sell high within the range; Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity of long overseas and short domestic [91]. 4. Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - Macro Factors: Neutral to bullish. The Fed's interest rate cut and the call between Chinese and US leaders are positive for market sentiment, but the Fed's stance is not super - dovish [192]. - Raw Material End: Neutral to bullish. Concerns about the supply in Indonesia have decreased, but there is still uncertainty in the RKAB approval in 2026. The nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia increased slightly, and the domestic port inventory increased significantly [192]. - Smelting End: Neutral. The production of pure nickel remained high, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the production of some nickel iron plants in Indonesia resumed. The demand for nickel sulfate increased, and the stainless steel price oscillated [192]. - Demand End: Neutral. The social inventory of stainless steel continued to decline, but the peak - season demand recovery was limited. The new energy production and sales remained high, driving the procurement demand of precursor enterprises [192]. - Inventory: Neutral to bearish. Global nickel inventories increased rapidly [192]. - Investment Viewpoint: Oscillating to bullish. Although there are uncertainties in the Indonesian supply, the improvement in market sentiment and the relatively strong raw material prices may drive nickel and stainless steel prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [192]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy low within the range; Arbitrage: Wait and see [192].