集运日报：现货运价维持低位，尺长情绪仍较为悲观，盘面持续下探，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250922

Freight Rates and Market Sentiment - Spot freight rates remain low, with a pessimistic market sentiment leading to continued declines, suggesting no further accumulation and the importance of setting stop-loss orders[1] - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes decreased by 8.1% to 1440.24 points, while the index for US West Coast routes increased by 37.7% to 1349.84 points[2] - The overall Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, reflecting an 8.8% decrease in rates for European routes and a 31.0% decrease for US West Coast routes[2] Economic Indicators - Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 50.5, above the expected 49.5, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity[2] - The US manufacturing PMI reached a 39-month high of 53.3, significantly above the forecast of 49.5, suggesting robust manufacturing growth[2] Trade and Tariff Developments - Ongoing delays in US-China tariff negotiations have led to a marginalization of tariff issues, with current focus shifting to spot freight rates[3] - The main contract closed at 1050.5, reflecting a 6.00% decline, with trading volume at 32,100 contracts and an increase in open interest by 542 contracts[3] Strategic Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests maintaining a weak position in main contracts while waiting for bottoming opportunities, advising against holding positions without stop-loss measures[4] - Long-term strategy recommends taking profits on high positions and waiting for stabilization before making further directional judgments[4] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and volatile oil prices are contributing to market instability, necessitating close monitoring of these factors[6]