成交量能回暖，关注日历效应：可转债周报20250922-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main line remains in the technology sector, with the turnover rate increasing rapidly and the valuation of high - parity convertible bonds being relatively strong. The TMT sector has been continuously catalyzed, and technology may still be the main line during the non - earnings disclosure period. The high - parity convertible bonds are more favored by the market, and the premium rate of 130 - 150 parity convertible bonds increased by 0.24pct last week [6][10]. - Attention should be paid to the calendar effect around the National Day. Due to the long National Day holiday, pre - holiday risk aversion leads to financing net selling and trading slowdown. After the holiday, the index is more likely to recover, and different industries may have different performances. The probability of an increase in margin trading balances in November is 80%. Industries such as communication, electronics, and computers have a relatively high probability of rising after the National Day [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Positive Stock and Valuation Adjustment, Main Line in the Technology Sector - Last week, the equity market fluctuated and corrected, and the convertible bond market was still in a weak range. The 100 - yuan fitted premium rate decreased by 1.66pct month - on - month. Although the trading volume recovered compared with early September, the convertible bond index's weekly trading volume was 40.9009 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 6.42%. The weak performance of micro - cap stocks dragged down the underlying stocks of convertible bonds, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index corrected more significantly [6][9]. 3.2. Pay Attention to the Calendar Effect around the National Day - Pre - holiday capital outflows may be replenished in October. From 2015 - 2024, margin trading balances at the beginning of October mostly decreased compared with those at the beginning of September, and the probability of an increase in margin trading balances in November was 80%. - After the holiday, the index is more likely to recover. From 2015 - 2024, the probability of the Wande All - A Index correcting before the National Day was 60%, and the probability of recovery after the holiday was 70%. Industries with a high probability of rising include communication, electronics, and computers [2]. 3.3. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Corrected Weekly, and Valuation Compressed 3.3.1. Weekly Market Quotes - Last week, major stock indices showed different performances, and the convertible bond market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%, the SSE 50 Index decreased by 1.98%, the CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.21%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 1.55%. There are 438 issued and unexpired convertible bonds with a balance of 604.505 billion yuan [28]. - In the equity market, most industries were weak. In the convertible bond market, home appliances, communication, and other sectors had the highest increases, while non - bank finance, building decoration, and other sectors had the highest declines [30]. 3.3.2. Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 129.22 yuan, a decrease of 1.61% from the previous Friday. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds increased by 3.72%, while that of debt - biased and balanced convertible bonds decreased. The 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate decreased by 1.66pct. High - rated and large - scale convertible bonds had a relatively large increase in premium rates, with AAA - rated bonds increasing by 2.44pct and bonds over 5 billion yuan increasing by 2.92pct [36]. 3.4. Terms and Supply 3.4.1. Terms - As of September 19, 4 convertible bonds, including Lushan, Keda, Jiuzhouzhuan 2, and Sanyang Convertible Bonds, announced early redemption; no convertible bonds announced non - early redemption; Jingxing and Fuli Convertible Bonds announced that they were expected to meet the early redemption conditions. - As of September 19, Huitong and Zhengchuan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions; Jiayuan Convertible Bond announced the downward revision result; 5 convertible bonds announced no downward revision; Kangyi, Jinggong, and other convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions [3][57]. 3.4.2. Primary Market - Last week, Yingliu Convertible Bond was issued with a scale of 1.5 billion yuan, and there were no convertible bonds to be listed or issued. - Last week, Huaxiang Co., Ltd., Shangluo Electronics, and Huichuangda added board proposals, 4 companies passed the general meeting, 2 companies passed the CSRC review committee, and no new companies were approved by the CSRC. As of September 19, 3 listed companies obtained convertible bond issuance approvals with a proposed issuance scale of 6.802 billion yuan, 7 companies passed the CSRC review committee with a total scale of 6.176 billion yuan, and the total scale of the 3 new board proposals was 2.958 billion yuan [4][60][70].