降息落地利多出尽，铜价重回区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices dropped significantly with reduced positions. After the Fed's interest - rate cut met expectations, the positive news was exhausted, and the lack of spot support led copper prices back to a volatile trend. There is still a probability of triggering a recession expectation due to the slowdown of the US economy and the rapid decline of employment indicators. On the industrial fundamental side, the return of the peak season is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether there will be pre - holiday inventory reduction through stocking. The spot premium has fallen from a high level, and social inventory has increased. Although the smelting processing fee is low, the production remains stable. Globally, copper inventory is still not low. The total position of copper has dropped below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan, and spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Macro - level - PMI: In August 2025, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.05% (up 0.7 percentage points month - on - month), while the US manufacturing level declined. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (down 3.4 percentage points month - on - month), hitting a 9 - month low and staying below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4% (up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), remaining below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months [12]. - Interest - rate cut: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP after highlighting economic slowdown risks and pressured employment data. The market had fully priced in the cut in advance, and the interest - rate cut path remained cautious, with a weakened impact on inflation expectations. The US economic data continued to slow down, and employment indicators dropped rapidly, increasing the risk of a recession [5][13][86]. Industrial Fundamentals - Copper concentrate supply: In 2024, the global copper mine production was 2283.5 million tons (up 2.54% year - on - year), with a market surplus of 30.1 million tons. In 2025 from January to June, the cumulative production was 1144 million tons (up 3.32% year - on - year), with a surplus of 25.1 million tons. China's copper concentrate imports also showed an increasing trend. In 2025 August, imports were 275.9 million tons (up 7.2% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month), with cumulative imports from January to August at 2005.4 million tons (up 7.9% year - on - year) [22][29]. - TC: On September 19, 2025, the SMM import copper concentrate index was - 40.8 dollars/dry ton (up 0.5 dollars/dry ton from the previous period). The 2025 long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 21.25 dollars/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [33]. - Refined copper production: In August 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 0.24%) but increased by 15.59% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by 97.88 million tons (a growth of 12.30%). It is expected that in September, production will decrease by 5.25 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 4.48%) but increase by 11.47 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 11.42%) [40]. - Refined copper import and export: In 2024, China imported 373.88 million tons of refined copper (up 6.49% year - on - year) and exported 45.75 million tons (up 63.86% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 29.69 million tons (down 1.20% month - on - month but up 7.56% year - on - year), and exports soared to 11.84 million tons (up 49.86% month - on - month and 69.13% year - on - year) [46]. - Scrap copper supply: In 2024, China imported 225 million tons of copper scrap (up 13.26% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 19.01 million tons (up 3.73% month - on - month but down 2.36% year - on - year), and from January to July, cumulative imports were 133.55 million tons (down 0.77% year - on - year) [50]. - Consumption end: - Power and grid investment: In 2024 from January to December, power investment was 11687.22 billion yuan (up 12.14% year - on - year), and grid investment was 6082.58 billion yuan (up 15.26% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to July, power investment was 4288 billion yuan (up 3.4% year - on - year), and grid investment was 3315 billion yuan (up 12.5% year - on - year) [54]. - Air - conditioner production: In 2024 from January to December, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 26598.44 million units (up 9.7% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to August, it was 19964.62 million units (up 5.8% year - on - year), with a decline in monthly production and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate [57]. - Automobile production: In 2025 from January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively (up 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year). New energy vehicle production and sales were 962.5 million and 962 million vehicles respectively (up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year), with a new - car penetration rate of 45.5% [62]. - Real estate: In 2024 from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 7.37 billion square meters (down 27.7% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In August 2025, the completion area was 2.77 billion square meters (down 17% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year [64]. Other Elements - Inventory: As of September 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 57 million tons (up 1.17 million tons week - on - week). The LME copper inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 14.77 million tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.17 million tons to 10.58 million tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 6290 tons to 31.68 million tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 7.68 million tons (up 0.41 million tons from the previous week) [69]. - CFTC non - commercial net position: As of September 16, 2025, the CFTC non - commercial long - net position was 30348 lots (up 3107 lots week - on - week), with non - commercial long positions at 69370 lots (up 5077 lots week - on - week) and non - commercial short positions at 39022 lots (up 1970 lots week - on - week) [71]. - Premium and discount: As of September 19, 2025, the LME copper spot discount was - 64.9 dollars/ton. The Shanghai area's premium stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that next week, if the copper price remains around 80000 yuan/ton, the downstream's pre - holiday stocking sentiment may be better than expected; otherwise, it may decline [80]. - Basis: As of September 19, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals average price of copper 1 and the continuous third - contract was 200 yuan/ton [82]. Market Outlook - The copper price dropped significantly with reduced positions, and the total position fell below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan. Spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86].