CMS·2025-09-22 08:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for companies such as Goldwind Technology, Longi Green Energy, and Sungrow Power Supply [2] Core Insights - The global shipping industry is undergoing a green transition driven by the IMO's emission reduction targets and the European carbon tax, with green methanol expected to be a major alternative fuel by 2030, potentially increasing current methanol demand by 40% [1][6] - Major shipyards are actively preparing for methanol vessels, with a concentrated delivery period expected in 2026 [1] - The price of green methanol is currently high, necessitating significant cost reductions in the future [1][6] Industry Overview - The shipping fuel market consumes approximately 300 million tons annually, contributing over 2% of global CO₂ emissions [10] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set ambitious targets for emission reductions, aiming for a 20%-30% reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050 [10][11] - The European Union's inclusion of shipping in its carbon trading system (ETS) starting in 2024 will further incentivize the transition to green fuels [11] Green Methanol as a Key Choice - Green methanol is positioned as a long-term solution for shipping fuel due to its advantages such as flexible storage, lower cost per energy unit, and environmental friendliness [6][19] - The global demand for methanol is projected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting that if methanol's share in shipping fuel reaches 10% by 2030, it could add over 50 million tons to global methanol demand [43][50] Production and Cost Considerations - The production of green methanol is currently limited by high costs and stringent EU definitions, with biomass gasification and fermentation being the main production routes [1][23] - The current price of green methanol exceeds 7000 RMB per ton, making it economically unfeasible for shipowners without further cost reductions [1][23] Key Companies - The report highlights several companies to watch, including Goldwind Technology, Longi Green Energy, Sungrow Power Supply, and others involved in the green methanol production and supply chain [6][51]