碳酸锂周报：储能需求超预期，锂价震荡偏强-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 400 tons week - on - week to 20,400 tons, with a slight increase in output from each raw material end. In August, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month - on - month and a 6.9% increase year - on - year, expected to arrive in China from late September to October. China's social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 981 tons week - on - week to 137,500 tons, continuing the de - stocking trend. Refineries and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory [6]. - Demand side: According to research, the downstream production schedule in September increased by about 5% month - on - month, and overseas energy storage demand was remarkable. Ningde's production schedule guidance for suppliers in 2026 was revised up to 1100GWh, a 46% increase year - on - year, exceeding market expectations [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.9% week - on - week. It is expected that lithium ore prices will follow the movement of lithium salt prices. In July, China's spodumene imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.35% increase month - on - month [6]. - Strategy: Boosted by strong peak - season demand, lithium prices are trending upwards. The news of the possible复产 of the Jianxiakeng Mine has been fully priced in, and the expectation of supply contraction has cooled, but there are still news disturbances. The current lithium price is in a relatively balanced range, suppressed by high inventory and hedging demand on the upside and supported by peak - season demand on the downside. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate within the range of [70,000, 76,000]. Pay attention to the progress of issues at the mine end, and enterprises can consider purchasing on demand when prices are low [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Lithium concentrate imports: From January to June, China imported 3.496 million tons of spodumene. In July, imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.4% increase month - on - month, with a significant increase in imports from Australia [10]. - Lithium concentrate prices: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.9% week - on - week. It is expected that lithium ore prices will fluctuate with lithium salt prices [13]. - Lithium carbonate production: From January to August this year, China's cumulative lithium carbonate production was 550,000 tons, a 38.9% increase year - on - year. In August, domestic lithium carbonate production was 80,000 tons, a 7.3% increase month - on - month [17]. - Lithium carbonate imports: From January to July, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports were 131,600 tons, basically flat year - on - year. In August, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,000 tons, a 6.9% increase year - on - year and a 4.8% decrease month - on - month, expected to arrive in China from late September to October [21]. - Spot prices: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase week - on - week. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, a slight increase week - on - week [24]. - Profitability of non - integrated plants: After the lithium price correction, the profitability of non - integrated lithium salt plants deteriorated. Non - integrated spodumene manufacturers had a loss of about 664 yuan/ton, and non - integrated lepidolite manufacturers had a loss of 5,011 yuan/ton [28]. Demand Side - Cathode material plants: From January to July, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 1.746 million tons, a 46.4% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative production of ternary cathode was 399,000 tons, an 11.9% increase year - on - year. The industry capacity utilization rate was low. In July, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 59.7%, and that of ternary materials was 49.4% [34]. - Downstream production schedule: It is expected that the downstream production schedule in September will increase by about 5% month - on - month, and energy storage demand is remarkable [37]. - Global new energy vehicle market: From January to July this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 10.657 million, a 25.0% increase year - on - year. China and the European market had strong growth, while the US growth slowed down [40]. - Domestic new energy vehicle market: From January to August, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 9.592 million, a 36.4% increase year - on - year. From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger new energy vehicle market were 438,000, a 6% increase year - on - year and a 10% increase month - on - month [43]. - Power battery production: In July, China's total production of power and other batteries was 133.8GWh, a 3.6% increase month - on - month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production was 831.1GWh, a 57.5% increase year - on - year [47]. - Consumer electronics: In the second quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 69 million, a 4.0% decrease year - on - year. The production of electronic computer complete machines in the second quarter was 93.7 million, an 8.2% increase year - on - year [51]. - Overseas energy storage demand: From January to July 2025, the new installed capacity of new - type energy storage was 25.85GW/67.75GWh, a 48.8% increase in capacity year - on - year. Overseas, the energy storage growth rate was remarkable [56]. Other Indicators - Basis: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 460, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was flat week - on - week at 2,250 yuan/ton [59]. - Term structure: This week, the lithium carbonate contract term structure was in a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - continuous and near - month contracts turned positive, with a spread of 200, an increase of 360 from last week [62].