原油：过剩担忧重燃，油价冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has confirmed the start of a second - round production increase, and the off - peak demand season has arrived as expected. The pressure of crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter will further increase. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined the production increase route, once the oil price rises, it will boost the enthusiasm for production increase, which will always suppress the upside of the oil price. The medium - to - long - term strategy of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In the short term, the interest rate cut, one of the bullish drivers, has been implemented. It is expected that WTI will mainly fluctuate between $60 - $65 after a correction, waiting for further drivers to break the range. Seize the rebound trading opportunities brought by the volatile geopolitical situation [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis - Crude Oil Price Trends: From September 15 - 19, international oil prices rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, oil prices rose due to sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States and interest rate cut expectations. After the interest rate cut was implemented, the macro - premium began to be continuously adjusted. As of September 19, WTI and Brent settled at $63.62/barrel (+1.43%) and $67.6/barrel (+1.42%) respectively; INE SC settled at 493.22 yuan/barrel (+2.18%) [9]. - Financial Aspects: The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, in line with market expectations. As of September 19, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound since mid - April and reached a new high; the VIX volatility was 15.45, significantly lower than when the tariff policy was first introduced and still at a relatively low level [13]. - Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index: The crude oil ETF volatility declined this week, and the dollar index fluctuated. As of September 19, the crude oil volatility ETF was 30.53, and the dollar index was 97.6519. Although the Fed cut interest rates this week, Powell's speech was slightly hawkish. The market priced in only one interest rate cut in each of next year and the year after, causing the dollar index to fluctuate [17]. - Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions: As of September 16, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 26,800 contracts to 36,800 contracts week - on - week, a weekly increase of 267.9%; the speculative net long positions decreased by 9,900 contracts to 61,900 contracts, a weekly decline of 13.8%. The market bet on the intensification of geopolitical sanctions risks, and the interest rate cut expectations boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in net long positions before the interest rate cut was implemented [20]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - OPEC Overall Production: In August, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day compared with the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the way. However, the production of the eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 154,000 barrels per day lower than the plan in August, mainly because some countries were fulfilling their submitted compensation production - cut plans [26]. - OPEC+ Production - Cut Situation: According to the IEA statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries in August was 23.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 190,000 barrels per day. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still over - produced significantly, but the overall over - production of the nine countries decreased compared with the previous month. Seven countries updated their compensation production - cut plans, and the concentrated production cuts were extended to the first half of next year [30]. - Saudi and Iranian Crude Oil Production: Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise. In August, its crude oil production increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 9.709 million barrels per day. Iran's production continued to decline. In August, its crude oil production decreased by 27,000 barrels per day to 3.218 million barrels per day, affected by sanctions and the Israel - Iran war [32]. - Russian Crude Oil Supply: According to the OPEC statistics, Russia's crude oil production in August was 9.173 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 barrels per day; according to the IEA statistics, it was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 barrels per day. Production is gradually recovering under the production - increase plan but remains at a relatively low level [42]. - US Crude Oil Rig Count: As of the week of September 19, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 418, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian region has significantly decreased, and the potential for crude oil production increase may be limited [46]. - US Crude Oil Production: As of the week of September 12, US crude oil production marginally rebounded to 13.482 million barrels per day, a decrease of 13,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 2.14%. Low oil prices in the first half of the year dampened producers' enthusiasm, compressing the potential for US oil production increase in the second half of the year. However, relatively healthy oil prices during the peak season in the third quarter and high well production efficiency will prevent production from a sharp decline [49]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - US Total Petroleum Product Demand: US petroleum product demand has peaked and declined. The single - week demand for refined oil products has rebounded, but the four - week average demand has decreased. In absolute terms, the current demand level is at the upper end of historical levels, and the peak - season demand has peaked. As of the week of September 12, the four - week average total demand for petroleum products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 217,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.69% [53]. - US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data: From August 12 to September 12, US crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day (-0.10%), consumption decreased by 217,000 barrels per day (-1.04%), refinery processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day (-2.34%), and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 1.6% (-1.69%). Gasoline production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day (-1.88%), and the implied demand decreased by 8,000 barrels per day (-0.09%). Distillate production decreased by 274,000 barrels per day (-5.24%), and the implied demand decreased by 86,000 barrels per day (-2.26%) [57]. - US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Four - Week Average Consumption: As of September 12, the four - week average demand for gasoline decreased by 8,000 barrels per day to 8.919 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; the average demand for distillates decreased by 86,000 barrels per day to 3.727 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.77%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 69,000 barrels per day to 1.703 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.13% [60]. - US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads: This week, the US gasoline crack spread and heating oil crack spread fluctuated. As of September 19, the gasoline crack spread was $20.09 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $33.87 per barrel. The crude oil side was relatively strong due to geopolitical uncertainties, while gasoline demand showed signs of peaking, causing the crack spread to decline seasonally. The heating oil took over the demand baton, but the crack spread also declined due to unexpected inventory builds [61]. - European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads: As of September 19, the ICE diesel crack spread was $27.93 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.87 per barrel. Supported by the seasonal recovery of distillate demand, the crack spreads had rebounded, but the unexpected inventory build of distillates this week raised market concerns, causing the crack spreads to decline slightly [65]. - China's Oil Products and Refinery Situation: In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.391 million tons year - on - year to 63.46 million tons (+7.43%); the import volume increased by 392,000 tons year - on - year to 49.492 million tons (+0.8%). Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation this year, China's oil imports from the Gulf region have surged, and Russia's oil supply has also rebounded significantly compared with previous years. The import volume rebounded seasonally in August [68]. - Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth: Three major international institutions have become more optimistic about this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintained last month's forecast, while the IEA and EIA raised their forecasts for global oil demand growth. In September, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC expected the global crude oil demand growth rate this year to be 900,000 barrels per day (↑), 740,000 barrels per day (↑), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively, and 1.28 million barrels per day, 700,000 barrels per day, and 1.4 million barrels per day next year [72]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - US Crude Oil Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventories declined again to a very low level in the five - year range due to the rebound in exports. As of September 12, EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.52%; SPR inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.73 million barrels; and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels to 23.561 million barrels [73]. - Inventory Changes: As of the week of September 12, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 3.111 million barrels per day to 415,000 barrels per day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 16.424 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% [77]. - WTI and Brent Month - Spreads: As of September 19, the WTI M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.28 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $1.16 per barrel. The WTI month - spread maintained a backwardation structure but continued to weaken. The Brent M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.64 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $1.49 per barrel. The Brent month - spread was stronger than the WTI this week due to European sanctions on Russian crude oil, which tightened the supply outlook in Europe [80][82]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In September, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 105.54 million barrels per day, and demand would be 103.81 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.73 million barrels, an increase from last month. Although the EIA raised its demand forecast, due to OPEC+ opening a flexible production - increase window of 1.65 million barrels per day, the pressure of supply surplus this year is expected to be greater [85]. - Term Structure: This week, the US fundamental data indicated that the peak - season demand had peaked, and the term structure continued to flatten. Due to geopolitical factors, the supply of Brent was expected to be tighter, supporting a stronger contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure, but as the peak - season demand weakens, if OPEC+ continues to accelerate production increase in the near - term, the term structure may change [88].