有色金属基础周报：美联储降息引发回调，有色金属整体维持震荡-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price fluctuated at a high level before the National Day. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain, and domestic policies may be further strengthened. The recovery of peak - season consumption and high domestic maintenance will support the copper price [2]. - The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area. Although the inventory continued to accumulate during the peak season, it was still recommended to go long at low prices, and a strategy of going long on AD and short on AL could be considered for aluminum alloy [2]. - The zinc price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the domestic zinc fundamentals lacking support, and it was recommended to trade with a short bias in the range [2]. - The lead price broke through and then moved sideways, and it was recommended to go long at low prices in the range [2]. - The nickel price was expected to decline in the short - term after the interest - rate cut and remain in a state of oversupply in the long - term. It was recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and stainless steel was recommended for range trading [3]. - The tin price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the upward channel. Due to the tight supply of tin ore and the recovery of downstream consumption, it was recommended for range trading [3]. - The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for short - term long trading or to wait and see. The polysilicon price was expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, and it was recommended to wait and see [3]. - The lithium carbonate price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for cautious trading [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - China's Economic Data: From January to August, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year; in August, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.4% [11][13][14][15]. - US Economic Data: In August, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 13 fell to 231,000 [16][17][18]. 3.2 Copper - Price Trend: The copper price first rose and then fell this week. Domestically, the trading enthusiasm increased after the price center moved down, and it was expected to maintain a high - level shock before the National Day [2]. - Supply and Demand: Currently, domestic smelters are in a high - maintenance period, but with the supplement of imported copper, the supply pressure is not obvious. Terminal consumption is still weak, and the inventory is stable with a slight increase [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price Trend: The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area [47]. - Supply and Demand: The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. The downstream demand entered the peak - season rhythm, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to increase [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price Trend: The zinc price fluctuated weakly last week, and it was expected to continue the weak shock [65]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of zinc concentrate was loose, and refined zinc production remained high. Terminal consumption was weak, and domestic zinc inventories reached a high for the year [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price Trend: The lead price showed a shock - rebound trend, breaking through and then moving sideways [2]. - Supply and Demand: The inventory decreased, and the replenishment demand of battery enterprises was strong, supporting the spot lead price [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price Trend: The nickel price fluctuated and declined last week, and it was expected to decline in the short - term and remain oversupplied in the long - term [3]. - Supply and Demand: The refined nickel market was in an oversupply situation, the growth of nickel - iron prices slowed down, and the stainless - steel market had limited demand boost [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price Trend: The tin price continued to fluctuate in the upward channel [3]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry was expected to continue to recover, with inventories at a medium level [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price Trend: The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - Supply and Demand: The production and inventory of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon changed in different directions, and the market risk was relatively large [3]. 3.9 Carbonate Lithium - Price Trend: The carbonate lithium price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - Supply and Demand: The supply was affected by mine - related issues, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal was good, with battery factories increasing production [3].