正信期货铜月报：降息预期走强，铜价偏强震荡-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, copper prices fluctuated within a range, and prices were boosted by macro - factors at the end of the month. The implementation of US copper tariffs led to a narrowing of price spreads. COMEX copper ended a more than half - year tariff - expected trading with a 24% weekly decline, and the $3000 premium spread between COMEX and LME copper disappeared overnight. Macro expectations are leaning towards an increased probability of interest rate cuts in September, and domestic policy expectations are strengthening with a bright performance in the equity market. In the industrial fundamentals, although it was the off - season in China in August, the spot premium was strong, smelting profits did not improve significantly, and production declined month - on - month. After the tariff implementation, global visible inventories increased further. The flow of the 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (with a cumulative increase of 170,000 tons this year) is crucial, and it may flow back to the LME copper market. During the re - balancing process, the emergence of invisible inventories due to demand shocks may affect the international copper price pricing center. In August, the copper price game was dull, with no obvious signs of long or short position increases and a low overall position level. However, the main price variable is still overseas. With the increasing certainty of interest rate cuts and the expectation of the peak season, copper prices may oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the weekly line pressure at the 80,000 level [4][5][83][84]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Macro - level - In August, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded (the preliminary value in August was 50.05%, a 0.7 - percentage - point month - on - month increase), while the US manufacturing level declined (the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5%, a 3.4 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, hitting a nine - month low and remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months). China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, a 0.1 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, remaining below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The manufacturing industry was in a passive de - stocking stage under weak recovery, with a slight expansion in supply, a further decline in inventory, and a price increase, indicating an increase in apparent demand due to macro - policy stimulus. The implementation of US tariff policies and whether there will be incremental fiscal policies in China in the fourth quarter to promote the manufacturing industry into an active inventory - replenishment stage need to be continuously monitored. Macro expectations are leaning towards an increased probability of interest rate cuts. Under the continuous pressure from the Trump administration, Powell may change his monetary policy stance and not prioritize inflation control. After the marginal weakening of the US economic "hard data", the probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased significantly. Domestic policy expectations are strengthening, and the equity market is performing well [11][12]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - Global copper mine production: In 2024, the annual production was 2283.5 million tons, a 2.54% year - on - year increase, with a market surplus of 30.1 million tons. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative production was 1144 million tons, a 3.32% year - on - year increase, with a supply surplus of 25.1 million tons in the first half of the year. In June, the production was 191.6 million tons, a 3.57% year - on - year increase, with a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons [21]. - China's copper concentrate imports: In 2024, the cumulative import was 2811.4 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. In 2025, in July, the import was about 256 million tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative import from January to July was 1731.4 million tons, an 8% year - on - year increase [25]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On August 29, the SMM import copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 41.48 dollars/dry ton, a 0.33 - dollar decrease from the previous period. The 2025 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 21.25 dollars/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [29]. Refined Copper Production - In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons month - on - month (a 0.24% decrease) and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by 97.88 million tons (a 12.30% increase). It is expected that in September, domestic electrolytic copper production will decrease by 5.25 million tons month - on - month (a 4.48% decrease) and increase by 11.47 million tons year - on - year (an 11.42% increase). From January to September, the cumulative production is expected to increase by 109.35 million tons (a 12.20% increase) [36]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 373.88 million tons of refined copper (a 6.49% year - on - year increase) and exported 45.75 million tons (a 63.86% year - on - year increase). In 2025, in July, the import of electrolytic copper was 29.69 million tons (a 1.20% month - on - month decrease but a 7.56% year - on - year increase), and the export soared to 11.84 million tons (a 49.86% month - on - month increase and a 69.13% year - on - year increase) [42]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 225 million tons of copper scrap (a 13.26% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, the cumulative import was 133.55 million tons (a 0.77% year - on - year decrease), and in July, the import was 19.01 million tons (a 3.73% month - on - month increase but a 2.36% year - on - year decrease) [46]. Scrap - refined Copper Price Spread - The average price spread between refined and scrap copper rods was 862 yuan/ton, a 138 - yuan month - on - month increase. The weekly operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 11.80%, a 5.03 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 1.46 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [49]. Consumption - end - Power and grid investment: In 2024, power investment was 1168.722 billion yuan (a 12.14% year - on - year increase), and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan (a 15.26% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, power investment was 428.8 billion yuan (a 3.4% year - on - year increase), and grid investment was 331.5 billion yuan (a 12.5% year - on - year increase) [50]. - Air - conditioner production: In 2024, the annual production was 265.9844 million units (a 9.7% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, the production was 183.4554 million units (a 5.1% year - on - year increase), and the monthly production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, entering the production off - season [53]. - Automobile production: In 2025, from January to July, the cumulative production of automobiles was 18.235 million units (a 12.7% year - on - year increase), and the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.243 million units in July (a 26.3% year - on - year increase), accounting for 48.7% of the total new - vehicle sales [58]. - Real - estate: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters (a 27.7% year - on - year decrease), and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In 2025, in July, the completion area was 250 million square meters (a 16.5% year - on - year decrease), and the new - construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year [60]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 29, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 516,400 tons, a 51,100 - ton monthly increase. The LME copper inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 158,900 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 7205 tons to 77,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 21,800 tons to 277,800 tons. As of August 28, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 75,000 tons, a 6000 - ton decrease from the previous week [66]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of August 26, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 26,230 lots, a monthly decrease of 11,117 lots. The non - commercial long position was 56,762 lots (a 17,888 - lot monthly decrease), and the non - commercial short position was 30,532 lots (a 6771 - lot monthly decrease) [68]. Premium and Discount - As of August 29, the LME copper spot discount was - 80.26 dollars/ton, and the discount pattern expanded. The domestic spot premium first decreased and then increased. It is expected that the SHFE copper spot premium will remain firm [77]. Basis - As of August 29, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [79]. Market Outlook - In the macro - level, copper prices may be boosted by the increasing certainty of interest rate cuts and the peak - season expectation, but attention should be paid to the weekly line pressure at the 80,000 level. In the industrial fundamentals, the flow of COMEX copper inventory and the impact of invisible inventory emergence on the international copper price pricing center need to be closely monitored [83][84].