南华期货集运产业周报：高空延续，但需谨慎近月低位反弹可能-20250922

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current mainstream shipping companies' spot cabin quotes for European routes in early October continue to decline, with the quotes of some major shipping companies falling below $1000 for 20 - foot containers, hitting a new low in recent years. The futures price valuation is also continuously decreasing, and the European - line index futures price is likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend before November [1]. - In the short - term, the futures price has dropped to a short - term low for two consecutive weeks, with the possibility of a short - term rebound. Next week is the last week before the National Day holiday, so there may be large - scale closing of positions and price fluctuations, and the futures price is likely to be mainly volatile [3]. - In the long - term, if the cease - fire agreement in Gaza is reached again or other geopolitical risks suddenly decrease, and the Red Sea resumes shipping, the European - line freight rate will significantly decline. The demand in the off - season may further weaken, and the support from demand during peak seasons like December may also be relatively weak [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations - Core Factors - The core factor affecting the EC price trend this week is the decline of the spot cabin quotes for European routes to a new low in recent years. The EC price is highly positively correlated with the spot cabin quotes for European routes. Attention should be paid to the changes in the quotes and the market fundamentals, as well as whether shipping companies will issue price - increase letters [1]. - In the short - term, the spot cabin quotes for European routes and the SCFI European line continue to decline, and the US - line quotes also drop significantly. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound in the futures price [3]. - In the long - term, geopolitical situations in the Middle East and the seasonality of the European - line container shipping market will affect the freight rate [6]. - Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: The downward momentum continues. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 950 - 1000, and the pressure level is in the range of 1150 - 1200. - Strategy Suggestions: Considering the off - season of the container shipping market, for hedging purposes, one can sell at high positions. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of the short - term December contract at 1500 - 1550 points [8]. - Arbitrage Strategy - Traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines for both the spot - futures (basis) strategy and the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy. Previous short positions can be partially closed at an appropriate time [9]. - Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Cargo Space Management: For companies with full cargo space or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. - Cost Management: For shipping companies or those who want to book cabins according to orders, they can buy container shipping index futures to determine the booking cost in advance [10]. - Basic Data Overview - The comprehensive freight rate indices of the container shipping market show different trends. The FBX comprehensive route index, SCFI, NCFI, CFFI, and SCFI European and US routes have declined, while the CICFI has increased slightly [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The Israeli military's continuous military operations in the Gaza Strip may affect shipping routes and freight rates [25]. - Negative Information: The spot cabin quotes for European routes of mainstream shipping companies in early October continue to decline, and the SCFI European line also drops [26]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow: The price of the container shipping index (European line) futures (EC) continues to be weak and volatile under the guidance of the spot booking price. The moving averages are in a short - position arrangement, with a slight downward expectation. The trading sentiment in the market is relatively cautious, and the subsequent price fluctuations may converge [28][29]. - Basis Structure: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) for European routes continues to decline, and the basis has narrowed. Traders can stay on the sidelines, and previous short positions can be partially closed. The basis rate in September has dropped to a reasonable range, and hedging at the current point requires caution [33]. - Inter - period Spread Structure: The price decline of each monthly contract this week is mainly affected by the continuous decline of the spot cabin quotes. The near - month contracts are more affected by negative factors, and the spreads of some contract combinations have significantly widened. Traders can stay on the sidelines [38]. Chapter 4: Profit Analysis - Some mainstream shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM have performed well in terms of profits and revenues in the first half of 2025, but the profits of some shipping companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport have significantly decreased compared with the same period last year. Most shipping companies are still profitable, but they will be more cautious in operation in the second half of the year, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [42].