贵金属期货周报：美联储降息落地，贵金属获利回吐震荡偏强-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. However, due to the coexistence of inflationary upside and employment downside risks, there are significant differences within the Fed regarding interest rate forecasts. Powell indicated that this is a risk management-type rate cut, and his hawkish remarks have brought uncertainty to the rate cut path in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the market still places high bets on rate cuts in the second half of the year. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly. [3] - In the short term, affected by the realization of the Fed's rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar index, precious metals will experience a brief correction. From a medium- to long-term fundamental perspective, it is expected that the transmission of tariffs to inflation will gradually become apparent. If inflation significantly heats up and the employment market shows signs of recovery in the second half of the year, it may affect the Fed's rate cut rhythm, which will be negative for precious metals. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the investment demand for precious metals from central banks and investors remains strong, providing bottom support for precious metals prices. The long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. The price of Shanghai Gold is long-term bullish, short-term oscillating, and investors should pay attention to correction opportunities. In the medium term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai Silver is short-term oscillating, and in the medium term, it is recommended to buy on dips. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The spot price of gold in the London market increased by 0.33% to $3663.15 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 1.05% to $3719.40 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 0.47% to 830.56 yuan per gram, and the price of Gold A (T+D) decreased by 0.52% to 826.00 yuan per gram. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 1.41% to 3946.35 million ounces, and the total COMEX gold position increased by 1.29% to 520,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.78% to 266,400 lots. The spot price of silver in the London market decreased by 0.06% to $42.24 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures price rose by 1.60% to $43.37 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Silver main contract decreased by 0.64% to 9971.00 yuan per kilogram, and the price of Silver A (T+D) decreased by 0.94% to 9940.00 yuan per kilogram. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.64% to 52404.33 million ounces, and the total COMEX silver position increased by 3.99% to 163,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX silver decreased by 4.45% to 51,500 lots [5]. - Gold-Silver Ratio: The domestic gold-silver ratio fell to around 83 last week, and the overseas gold-silver ratio fell to around 85, still higher than its long-term historical average. After the Fed cut interest rates in September, in line with market expectations, precious metals prices rose and then corrected due to profit-taking by investors [7]. - Domestic-Overseas Price Spread: The domestic-overseas price spreads of gold and silver both decreased compared to the previous week. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - US Dollar Index: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% at its September FOMC meeting, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. After the interest rate decision was announced, the US dollar index plunged and remained at a low level, boosting precious metals prices. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and precious metals prices oscillated strongly [13]. - US Treasury Real Yields: After the Fed announced its September interest rate decision, the real yields of 5-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds declined. However, subsequent hawkish remarks by Powell and a decrease in the number of unemployment benefit claims announced on Thursday indicated a slowdown in the weakening trend of the labor market, causing the real yields of US Treasury bonds to rebound [16]. - Key US Economic Data: In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year. The PPI was 2.6% year-on-year, lower than expected, and -0.1% month-on-month, turning negative for the first time in four months. The core PCE price index in July increased by 2.88% year-on-year, and the PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-on-year. The ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and the ISM services PMI was 52. Retail sales in August increased by 0.63% month-on-month. The ADP employment number in August increased by only 54,000, and non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of initial unemployment benefit claims last week decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 [20][24][27]. - Fed's Interest Rate Cut and Geopolitical Factors: The Fed's September interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but Powell's remarks were hawkish. The market still has high expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Sino-US negotiations have made progress, while the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to disrupt the market [34]. 3. Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: As of the week ending September 16, 2025, the speculative net long position of CMX gold increased by 47,000 lots to 266,400 lots, while the speculative net long position of CMX silver decreased by 24,000 lots to 51,500 lots [37]. - ETF Positions: As of September 19, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 19.76 tons to 994.56 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 135.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased last week [38]. 4. Other Factors - Gold and Silver Inventories: Last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 3946.35 million ounces, a 1.41% month-on-month increase, and the COMEX silver inventory was 52404.33 million ounces, a 0.64% month-on-month decrease [42]. - Gold and Silver Demand: In September 2025, the global gold reserve increased by 15.24 tons to 36,359.73 tons. China's gold reserve increased by 1.87 tons to 2300.40 tons, the 10th consecutive month of increase. In the second quarter of 2025, the global total gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons. The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, with strong industrial demand for silver [45]. This Week's Key Focus - Fed Officials' Speeches: Fed officials will deliver speeches on the US economic outlook this week. Pay attention to the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy [46]. - Key US Economic Data: The US core PCE price index for August and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September will be released this week. Pay attention to the US inflation situation [46].