钢材期货周度报告：成本支撑偏强，基本面边际改善-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for steel is relatively strong, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The market's fundamental contradictions have eased, and market sentiment has been somewhat restored. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate with an upward bias next week [2][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - As of September 19, the average price of 20mm Grade III earthquake-resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,299 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 24 yuan/ton. This week, the prices of construction steel products fluctuated upward. Taking rebar as an example, the price increase in the East China market was relatively large, with a week-on-week increase of 40 - 50 yuan/ton. Macro positive expectations were realized this week, the small-sample social inventory decreased, steel mill profits continued to narrow, production decreased slightly, the market's fundamental contradictions eased, and raw material support remained [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce's International Trade Negotiation Representative and Deputy Minister Li Chenggang stated on the evening of the 15th that China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue through cooperation, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation [6]. - From January to August, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with the growth rate dropping by 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with the growth rate dropping by 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points [6]. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 347.83 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.12452 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 2.81772 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9% [6]. - The Federal Reserve announced at its interest rate meeting on Wednesday that it would lower the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, the first interest rate cut this year and a resumption of rate cuts after a nine-month hiatus. The Fed's latest dot plot predicts two more rate cuts this year (25 basis points each), one more than the June forecast [6]. - In August, China's automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [7]. - In August, China's air conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; washing machine production was 10.132 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; color TV production was 18.016 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [7]. - According to Jinshi Futures on September 18, this week, Mysteel's statistics showed that the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a week-on-week increase of 1.9%. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 44,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,000 tons; the daily average production of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 33,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 217,000 tons [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 106,500 tons, higher than last week's 103,100 tons. As the month enters its second half, the market still expects a recovery in demand during the traditional peak season. In fact, due to improved weather, the demand for building materials has been gradually recovering [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supported by positive market expectations, steel mill production has decreased slightly, social inventory has started to decline, and raw material support remains. Overall, the market's fundamental contradictions have eased, and market sentiment has been somewhat restored. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate with an upward bias next week [27]. - From the market perspective, the black series closed higher on Friday. Among them, the main contract of coking coal had the highest increase of 1.36%. The increases of iron ore, coke, and rebar were similar, while hot-rolled coil was the weakest. The main rebar contract closed at 3,172, up 23 points on the day, 25 points higher than last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 3,159, up 10 points from last week. The latest position was 1.97 million lots, a decrease of 30,000 lots from last Friday. The position shifted from increasing while prices declined last week to decreasing while prices rose this week, and the profit margins for both long and short positions were relatively limited. Next week, continue to monitor the rebound strength, with the upper resistance level at 3,208 and the support level around 3,140 [27]. - Investment strategies: For single-side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - delivery spread arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][28].