降息落地，贵金属或走持续降息逻辑

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is to be bullish with fluctuations [4] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the dollar strengthened, and precious metals corrected to some extent. With the expectation of continuous Fed rate cuts, precious metals may experience a continuous rate - cut market, and the timing is crucial. The US economy shows some resilience but still has significant downward pressure. The RMB exchange rate has limited impact on precious metals [2][3][9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was less than market expectations, the dollar index rose sharply, and precious metals corrected. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, another 50 basis points. Gold and silver may rise synchronously under the expectation of continuous Fed rate cuts, and the short - term fluctuations of gold also affect the rise of silver [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US Senate Democrats blocked the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund for infrastructure. The US government requested the Supreme Court to allow Trump to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. The US initial jobless claims dropped, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined [12][15][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US September Michigan consumer confidence index hit a new low since May, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rose. The August ISM manufacturing index was below expectations, and the output index entered the contraction range. The second - quarter GDP and core PCE inflation data were released. The initial jobless claims decreased, indicating increased downward pressure on the US economy [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with the US in Spain to discuss trade issues. Trump said he was ready to impose second - stage sanctions on Russia and would impose tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not move production to the US. Geopolitical tensions have increased [20] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US August non - farm payrolls increased less than expected, the unemployment rate rose, and the ISM manufacturing index was below expectations. The July service PMI hit a new high since December 2024. Crude oil is affected by production cuts, and the copper prices at home and abroad diverge. With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut, US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [21] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts, the dollar index may decline, and the RMB has an appreciation expectation. The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited [25] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Most Fed officials believe that a 75 - basis - point rate cut this year is appropriate, and precious metals may experience a continuous rate - cut market. The Fed defines this rate cut as a defensive one [28]